Fed Decision in June?

Name: Fed Decision in June?
Start: 2025-12-10T21:50:37.376667Z
End: 2026-06-17T00:00:00Z

Prediction market · Polymarket

Featured

Overview

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Ticker

fed-decision-in-june-825

Volume

37.6M

24h volume

1.9M

1w volume

10.0M

Open interest

4.0M

Liquidity

4.1M

Liquidity CLOB

4.1M

Start

Dec 10, 2025

End

Jun 17, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Dec 10, 2025

Event ID

101772

Slug

fed-decision-in-june-825

Markets

Tags

Economic Policy Jerome Powell Fed Rates Fed Politics Economy fomc

Raw event data

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    {
      "id": "906976",
      "question": "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?",
      "conditionId": "0xb01e70a56199a6d5467f47a2b94e75e7c7218c128c8d0b8beb6dafed2f0d15c2",
      "slug": "will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-50-bps-after-the-june-2026-meeting",
      "endDate": "2026-06-17T00:00:00Z",
      "liquidity": "1902527.72039",
      "startDate": "2025-12-10T21:45:59.028092Z",
      "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/jerome+powell+glasses1.png",
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      "description": "The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's June 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for June 16-17, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.\n\nThe level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.",
      "outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
      "outcomePrices": "[\"0.0025\", \"0.9975\"]",
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      "endDateIso": "2026-06-17",
      "startDateIso": "2025-12-10",
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      "deployingTimestamp": "2025-12-10T21:37:42.618422Z",
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  "series": [
    {
      "id": "35",
      "ticker": "fomc",
      "slug": "fomc",
      "title": "FOMC",
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      "publishedAt": "2023-03-22 19:17:35.835+00",
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      "startDate": "2021-01-01T17:00:00Z",
      "commentCount": 8185,
      "requiresTranslation": false
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      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
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      "label": "Fed Rates",
      "slug": "fed-rates",
      "forceShow": true,
      "updatedAt": "2026-04-17T17:15:07.579162Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "159",
      "label": "Fed",
      "slug": "fed",
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      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:27:18.98+00",
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  "deployingTimestamp": "2025-12-10T21:35:11.481159Z",
  "requiresTranslation": false,
  "eventMetadata": {
    "context_description": "Recent inflation data showing a pickup to 3.8% year-over-year in April 2026, driven by energy price surges amid geopolitical tensions, combined with a resilient labor market, has anchored trader expectations for no change in the federal funds rate at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting. With the current target range at 3.50%-3.75% and the Fed emphasizing patience while prices remain above its 2% goal, the 97.8% market-implied probability for unchanged rates reflects this steady but elevated price trajectory and consistent central bank communications. Treasury yields and forward curves align with holding steady through the summer. Key upcoming releases, including the May employment report and June CPI on June 10, could still introduce volatility if they deviate sharply from consensus forecasts.",
    "context_requires_regen": true,
    "context_updated_at": "2026-05-22T00:30:58.358Z"
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}

Tickers mapped from the event's catalyst themes.