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How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Ticker
how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026
Volume
16.6M
24h volume
185.3K
1w volume
1.8M
Open interest
867.9K
Liquidity
1.1M
Liquidity CLOB
1.1M
Start
Sep 29, 2025
End
Dec 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Sep 29, 2025
Event ID
51456
Slug
how-many-fed-rate-cuts-in-2026
Markets
13
Raw event data
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"context_description": "Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price a 42.9% implied probability for zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026—totaling no basis point reductions—reflecting resilient U.S. economic data that has diminished easing expectations. The March 18 FOMC statement held the fed funds target at 3.50%-3.75%, with the dot plot median signaling just one 25 basis point cut amid solid GDP growth projections of 2.4% and unemployment steady at 4.4%. A robust March jobs report on April 3 added 178,000 nonfarm payrolls—tripling forecasts—while dropping unemployment to 4.3%, alongside persistent 2.4% February CPI inflation and oil shocks from the Iran conflict, have prompted banks like JPMorgan and Wells Fargo to forecast no 2026 cuts. Key catalyst ahead: March CPI release on April 10, which could further entrench the no-cut consensus if inflation spikes.",
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