Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?

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    "context_description": "Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99.9% implied probability against Iran publicly agreeing to unrestricted commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026, driven by the absence of any such commitment amid the 2026 Hormuz crisis. Iran imposed restrictions since late February, with only conditional reopenings during brief ceasefires—such as April 17 announcements tied to Israel-Lebanon truces—that retained Tehran’s control, new passage rules, and Persian-language requirements for vessels. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei’s April 30 declaration affirming ongoing Iranian oversight over the strait solidified this positioning, as daily transits plummeted from 138 to mere handfuls, spiking shipping insurance and oil volatility. Tail risks include an improbable last-minute diplomatic reversal or disputed retroactive claim, though geopolitical rhetoric and U.S. blockades render them negligible.",
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