
Prediction market · Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Ticker
israel-withdraws-from-lebanon-by
Volume
485.6K
24h volume
66.8K
1w volume
263.6K
Open interest
138.6K
Liquidity
117.5K
Liquidity CLOB
117.5K
Start
Apr 16, 2026
End
Jun 30, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Apr 16, 2026
Event ID
386812
Slug
israel-withdraws-from-lebanon-by
Markets
3
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"context_description": "Israeli forces initiated partial withdrawals of combat brigades, including the 162nd Division, Nahal, and Paratroopers, from southern Lebanon as of April 30, 2026, amid escalating Hezbollah FPV drone strikes and a collapsing U.S.-brokered ceasefire. The truce, launched April 16 for ten days and extended three weeks after White House talks, has unraveled with mutual violations: Hezbollah drones killing IDF soldiers and Israeli airstrikes continuing enforcement of a Litani River buffer zone. Prime Minister Netanyahu rejected full withdrawal demands, mirroring the 2024 model where troops remain to curb threats. Lebanese officials push for complete exit via diplomacy, but no timeline exists amid de-escalation risks and potential negotiations.",
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