Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

Name: Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)
Start: 2026-04-27T22:06:45.759058Z
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00Z
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ticker
next-leader-out-of-power-before-2027-no-orban
Volume
47.0M
24h volume
5.2M
1w volume
40.1M
Open interest
216.9K
Liquidity
1.4M
Liquidity CLOB
1.4M
Start
Apr 27, 2026
End
Dec 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Apr 27, 2026
Event ID
424982
Slug
next-leader-out-of-power-before-2027-no-orban
Markets
Tags
Politics Geopolitics Starmer Rewards 20, 4.5, 50 UK Labour Leadership
Raw event data
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      "funded": false,
      "acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-04-27T22:07:16Z",
      "cyom": false,
      "competitive": 0.8009597099244316,
      "pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
      "approved": true,
      "rewardsMinSize": 50,
      "rewardsMaxSpread": 4.5,
      "spread": 0.001,
      "oneMonthPriceChange": -0.009,
      "lastTradePrice": 0.001,
      "bestBid": 0.001,
      "bestAsk": 0.002,
      "automaticallyActive": true,
      "clearBookOnStart": true,
      "showGmpSeries": false,
      "showGmpOutcome": false,
      "manualActivation": false,
      "negRiskOther": false,
      "umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
      "pendingDeployment": false,
      "deploying": false,
      "deployingTimestamp": "2026-04-27T22:02:26.06566Z",
      "rfqEnabled": false,
      "holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
      "feesEnabled": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false,
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    },
    {
      "id": "2099595",
      "question": "Will no listed leader be out before 2027?",
      "conditionId": "0x84a45609bfdb644a15be71d679fbb4f115dea9109d9bac96e1bc049853e002f6",
      "slug": "will-no-listed-leader-be-out-before-2027-147",
      "endDate": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "liquidity": "97241.36899",
      "startDate": "2026-04-27T22:08:42.083759Z",
      "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/leader-6d967049a5.png",
      "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/leader-6d967049a5.png",
      "description": "This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.\n\nAn announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.\n\nOnly permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.\n\nAdditionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.\n\nIf this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
      "outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
      "outcomePrices": "[\"0.002\", \"0.998\"]",
      "volume": "5572274.156021003",
      "active": true,
      "closed": false,
      "marketMakerAddress": "",
      "createdAt": "2026-04-27T19:13:10.888394Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-07-06T03:39:21.566516Z",
      "new": false,
      "featured": false,
      "submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
      "archived": false,
      "resolvedBy": "0x69c47De9D4D3Dad79590d61b9e05918E03775f24",
      "restricted": true,
      "groupItemTitle": "None before 2027",
      "groupItemThreshold": "23",
      "questionID": "0xacaa6b6f21db48238329d32a14780206dc4a14beb9500f1100357260aad23617",
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      "orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.001,
      "orderMinSize": 5,
      "volumeNum": 5572274.156021003,
      "liquidityNum": 97241.36899,
      "endDateIso": "2026-12-31",
      "startDateIso": "2026-04-27",
      "hasReviewedDates": true,
      "volume24hr": 8137.820665,
      "volume1wk": 4781206.869679001,
      "volume1mo": 5529693.025910001,
      "volume1yr": 5572274.156021,
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      "comboStatus": "disabled",
      "umaBond": "500",
      "umaReward": "5",
      "volume24hrClob": 8137.820665,
      "volume1wkClob": 4781206.869679001,
      "volume1moClob": 5529693.025910001,
      "volume1yrClob": 5572274.156021,
      "volumeClob": 5572274.156021003,
      "liquidityClob": 97241.36899,
      "customLiveness": 0,
      "acceptingOrders": true,
      "negRisk": true,
      "negRiskMarketID": "0xacaa6b6f21db48238329d32a14780206dc4a14beb9500f1100357260aad23600",
      "negRiskRequestID": "0xc7fbdb5ca5dea038cb90c3a6cf34814724d3ffb8c5a3a5c9a5aadb7784c3b6e7",
      "ready": false,
      "funded": false,
      "acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-04-27T22:07:22Z",
      "cyom": false,
      "competitive": 0.8012794830785799,
      "pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
      "approved": true,
      "rewardsMinSize": 100,
      "rewardsMaxSpread": 4.5,
      "spread": 0.002,
      "oneDayPriceChange": 0.0005,
      "oneMonthPriceChange": -0.0135,
      "lastTradePrice": 0.003,
      "bestBid": 0.001,
      "bestAsk": 0.003,
      "automaticallyActive": true,
      "clearBookOnStart": true,
      "showGmpSeries": false,
      "showGmpOutcome": false,
      "manualActivation": false,
      "negRiskOther": false,
      "umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
      "pendingDeployment": false,
      "deploying": false,
      "deployingTimestamp": "2026-04-27T22:02:26.067816Z",
      "rfqEnabled": false,
      "holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
      "feesEnabled": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false,
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  ],
  "tags": [
    {
      "id": "2",
      "label": "Politics",
      "slug": "politics",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-10-25 18:55:50.674+00",
      "updatedBy": 13,
      "createdAt": "2023-10-25T18:55:50.681Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-04-17T20:39:54.201881Z",
      "forceHide": true,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "100265",
      "label": "Geopolitics",
      "slug": "geopolitics",
      "forceShow": true,
      "createdAt": "2024-06-12T20:13:03.615956Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-04-17T20:49:04.209055Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "101319",
      "label": "Starmer",
      "slug": "starmer",
      "createdAt": "2024-11-25T18:49:24.982919Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-04-17T20:32:49.912398Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "103149",
      "label": "Rewards 20, 4.5, 50",
      "slug": "rewards-20-4pt5-50",
      "forceShow": false,
      "createdAt": "2026-01-15T17:34:55.254317Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-04-15T20:46:22.35402Z",
      "isCarousel": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "105448",
      "label": "UK Labour Leadership",
      "slug": "uk-labour-leadership",
      "forceShow": false,
      "createdAt": "2026-06-19T18:05:55.430817Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-06-19T18:10:02.053388Z",
      "isCarousel": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false
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  ],
  "cyom": false,
  "showAllOutcomes": true,
  "showMarketImages": false,
  "enableNegRisk": true,
  "automaticallyActive": true,
  "gmpChartMode": "default",
  "negRiskAugmented": false,
  "pendingDeployment": false,
  "deploying": false,
  "deployingTimestamp": "2026-04-27T21:55:46.331401Z",
  "requiresTranslation": false,
  "eventMetadata": {
    "context_description": "Gustavo Petro leads at 51.5% due to Colombia’s fixed presidential term ending with successor inauguration on August 7, 2026, after the May–June elections, creating a scheduled exit independent of approval ratings. Keir Starmer follows at 30.5% amid sustained negative favorability near –45, recent local election setbacks, and internal Labour pressure for resignation that could accelerate departure before the 2029 deadline. Díaz-Canel sits at 7.8% amid Cuba’s deepening economic strains and reported U.S. sanctions, though centralized control limits near-term removal odds. Remaining candidates trade below 2% as their institutional positions, term structures, or coalition dynamics show fewer immediate catalysts for ouster before 2027. Trader pricing reflects these structural timelines and polling-driven volatility rather than guaranteed outcomes.",
    "context_requires_regen": true,
    "context_updated_at": "2026-06-18T02:32:23.183Z"
  }
}
Tickers mapped from the event's catalyst themes.
NVDA
NVIDIA Corporation
AI and compute
AI events can shift accelerator demand, cloud capex, networking spend, server demand, and software sentiment.
AMD
Advanced Micro Devices Inc.
AI and compute
AI events can shift accelerator demand, cloud capex, networking spend, server demand, and software sentiment.
AVGO
Broadcom Inc.
AI and compute
AI events can shift accelerator demand, cloud capex, networking spend, server demand, and software sentiment.
TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing
AI and compute
AI events can shift accelerator demand, cloud capex, networking spend, server demand, and software sentiment.
ASML
ASML Holding N.V.
AI and compute
AI events can shift accelerator demand, cloud capex, networking spend, server demand, and software sentiment.
AMAT
Applied Materials Inc.
AI and compute
AI events can shift accelerator demand, cloud capex, networking spend, server demand, and software sentiment.
LRCX
Lam Research Corporation
AI and compute
AI events can shift accelerator demand, cloud capex, networking spend, server demand, and software sentiment.
AAPL
Apple Inc.
Tariffs and trade
Tariffs can change input costs, gross margins, sourcing strategy, retail prices, and demand for import-heavy businesses.
KLAC
KLA Corporation
AI and compute
AI events can shift accelerator demand, cloud capex, networking spend, server demand, and software sentiment.
AMZN
Amazon.com Inc.
AI and compute
AI events can shift accelerator demand, cloud capex, networking spend, server demand, and software sentiment.
Micron Technology Inc.
AI and compute
AI events can shift accelerator demand, cloud capex, networking spend, server demand, and software sentiment.
WMT
Walmart Inc.
Tariffs and trade
Tariffs can change input costs, gross margins, sourcing strategy, retail prices, and demand for import-heavy businesses.
SMCI
Super Micro Computer Inc.
AI and compute
AI events can shift accelerator demand, cloud capex, networking spend, server demand, and software sentiment.
TGT
Target Corporation
Tariffs and trade
Tariffs can change input costs, gross margins, sourcing strategy, retail prices, and demand for import-heavy businesses.
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?
Vol 1.0MLiq 48.0KEnd Dec 31, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?
Vol 903.6KLiq 67.1KEnd Dec 31, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027?
Vol 147.1KLiq 48.6KEnd Dec 31, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?
Vol 640.9KLiq 65.9KEnd Dec 31, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027?
Vol 11.1MLiq 66.3KEnd Dec 31, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Vladimir Putin be the next leader out before 2027?
Vol 3.9MLiq 70.8KEnd Dec 31, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027?
Vol 816.6KLiq 70.4KEnd Dec 31, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?
Vol 3.6MLiq 77.7KEnd Dec 31, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next leader out before 2027?
Vol 2.7MLiq 57.7KEnd Dec 31, 2026OpenOrder book
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?
Vol 5.6MLiq 97.2KEnd Dec 31, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027?
Vol 207.1KLiq 64.1KEnd Dec 31, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027?
Vol 6.0MLiq 56.4KEnd Dec 31, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027?
Vol 3.1MLiq 93.8KEnd Dec 31, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the next leader out before 2027?
Vol 198.3KLiq 61.4KEnd Dec 31, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the next leader out before 2027?
Vol 154.4KLiq 50.1KEnd Dec 31, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Javier Milei be the next leader out before 2027?
Vol 5.1MLiq 40.0KEnd Dec 31, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Claudia Sheinbaum be the next leader out before 2027?
Vol 1.1MLiq 34.2KEnd Dec 31, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the next leader out before 2027?
Vol 140.0KLiq 48.9KEnd Dec 31, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Xi Jinping be the next leader out before 2027?
Vol 134.5KLiq 45.9KEnd Dec 31, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next leader out before 2027?
Vol 126.2KLiq 40.6KEnd Dec 31, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Gavin Newsom be the next leader out before 2027?
Vol 120.2KLiq 32.9KEnd Dec 31, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Emmanuel Macron be the next leader out before 2027?
Vol 111.3KLiq 35.5KEnd Dec 31, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Anthony Albanese be the next leader out before 2027?
Vol 105.8KLiq 35.8KEnd Dec 31, 2026OpenOrder book
Will Kim Jong Un be the next leader out before 2027?
Vol 91.1KLiq 30.3KEnd Dec 31, 2026OpenOrder book
Overview

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