
Prediction market · Polymarket
This market will resolve to “SpaceX” if the official closing price for SpaceX’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the official closing price for OpenAI’s market capitalization on its first trading day. This market will resolve to “OpenAI” if the official closing price for OpenAI’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the official closing price for SpaceX’s market capitalization on its first trading day. This market will resolve to the company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, if the other company does not complete an IPO within the market timeframe. This market will resolve to the IPOed company as soon as it becomes impossible for the other company to complete an IPO within the market timeframe, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded. This market will resolve 50-50 if: - Neither IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. - Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO within this market's timeframe, and their IPO closing market capitalizations are exactly equal. - Both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.
Ticker
spacex-or-openai-higher-ipo-closing-market-cap
Volume
12.0K
24h volume
786
1w volume
786
Open interest
7.1K
Liquidity
197
Liquidity CLOB
197
Start
Jan 30, 2026
End
Dec 31, 2027
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Jan 30, 2026
Event ID
193328
Slug
spacex-or-openai-higher-ipo-closing-market-cap
Markets
1
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"slug": "spacex-or-openai-higher-ipo-closing-market-cap",
"title": "SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?",
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"eventMetadata": {
"context_description": "SpaceX’s completed June 2026 IPO at a $1.77 trillion pricing valuation, which quickly exceeded $2 trillion in early trading, anchors trader sentiment at 58.1% for the higher IPO market cap outcome. OpenAI’s most recent $852 billion private round in March and reported pivot toward a 2027 debut—driven by revenue scaling needs, internal readiness gaps, and a preference to avoid immediate public scrutiny—keep its implied IPO range near or below $1 trillion. Recent capital inflows, Starlink and xAI integration momentum at SpaceX, and OpenAI’s delayed timeline relative to Anthropic’s filing reinforce the modest edge while leaving room for valuation upside if OpenAI accelerates or market conditions strengthen.",
"context_requires_regen": false,
"context_updated_at": "2026-08-30T05:32:57.126Z"
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