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Mapped Polymarket events only. Watchlist: BTC, ETH, AMZN, MARA, SLV, ETHE, MSTR, SPCX, SPY, QQQ, IWM, TLT, DXY, VIX. Sorted by largest odds move, then nearest end date.

Updated Aug 18, 2026.

Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase August 18-24?

Tickers MSTR

P: 27%
Δ pts: -22
End: Aug 25, 2026

Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase August 18-24? is now 27% (-22 pts). That is the live bet on MSTR.

What will Silver (XAGUSD) hit in August 2026?

Tickers SLV

P: 25%
Δ pts: -21
End: Sep 1, 2026

What will Silver (XAGUSD) hit in August 2026? is now 25% (-21 pts). That is the live bet on SLV.

Core PCE YoY - July 2026

Tickers TLT SPY

P: 83%
Δ pts: +9
End: Aug 26, 2026

Core PCE YoY - July 2026 is now 83% (+9 pts). That is the live bet on MACRO.

Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)

Tickers TLT SPY

P: 29%
Δ pts: +5.5
End: Sep 16, 2026

Fed decisions (Jun-Sep) is now 29% (+5.5 pts). That is the live bet on MACRO.

What price will Bitcoin hit in August?

Tickers BTC MSTR MARA

P: 38%
Δ pts: +5
End: Sep 1, 2026

What price will Bitcoin hit in August? is now 38% (+5 pts). That is the live bet on BTC / MSTR / MARA.

Fed rate hike by...?

Tickers TLT SPY

P: 28%
Δ pts: +5
End: Dec 9, 2026

Fed rate hike by...? is now 28% (+5 pts). That is the live bet on MACRO.

How high will inflation get in 2026?

Tickers TLT SPY

P: 13%
Δ pts: -4
End: Dec 31, 2026

How high will inflation get in 2026? is now 13% (-4 pts). That is the live bet on MACRO.

STRC hits $100 by…

Tickers MSTR

P: 28%
Δ pts: -3.5
End: Sep 30, 2026

STRC hits $100 by… is now 28% (-3.5 pts). That is the live bet on MSTR.

US economic state at the end of 2026?

Tickers TLT SPY

P: 64%
Δ pts: +3
End: Jan 31, 2027

US economic state at the end of 2026? is now 64% (+3 pts). That is the live bet on MACRO.

What price will Ethereum hit in August?

Tickers ETH ETHE

P: 55%
Δ pts: +2.5
End: Sep 1, 2026

What price will Ethereum hit in August? is now 55% (+2.5 pts). That is the live bet on ETH / ETHE.

How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?

Tickers SPCX

P: 60%
Δ pts: -2.5
End: Dec 31, 2026

How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026? is now 60% (-2.5 pts). That is the live bet on SPCX.

What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?

Tickers BTC MSTR MARA

P: 54%
Δ pts: -2.5
End: Jan 1, 2027

What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026? is now 54% (-2.5 pts). That is the live bet on BTC / MSTR / MARA.

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Tickers TLT SPY

P: 49%
Δ pts: +2
End: Dec 9, 2026

Fed rate hike in 2026? is now 49% (+2 pts). That is the live bet on MACRO.

How many SpaceX launches in 2026?

Tickers SPCX

P: 40%
Δ pts: +2
End: Dec 31, 2026

How many SpaceX launches in 2026? is now 40% (+2 pts). That is the live bet on SPCX.

US recession by end of 2027?

Tickers SPY QQQ IWM

P: 26%
Δ pts: -2
End: Dec 31, 2027

US recession by end of 2027? is now 26% (-2 pts). That is the live bet on MACRO.

What will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit before 2027?

Tickers ETH ETHE

P: 10%
Δ pts: -1.6
End: Jan 1, 2027

What will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit before 2027? is now 10% (-1.6 pts). That is the live bet on ETH / ETHE.

What price will Ethereum hit August 17-23?

Tickers ETH ETHE

P: 27%
Δ pts: -1.5
End: Aug 24, 2026

What price will Ethereum hit August 17-23? is now 27% (-1.5 pts). That is the live bet on ETH / ETHE.

AWS service disrupted by...?

Tickers AMZN

P: 52%
Δ pts: +1.5
End: Sep 30, 2026

AWS service disrupted by...? is now 52% (+1.5 pts). That is the live bet on AMZN.

SpaceX Starship Florida Launch by…?

Tickers SPCX

P: 28%
Δ pts: -1.5
End: Dec 31, 2026

SpaceX Starship Florida Launch by…? is now 28% (-1.5 pts). That is the live bet on SPCX.

When will Bitcoin hit $150k?

Tickers BTC MSTR MARA

P: 1%
Δ pts: -1.3
End: Jan 1, 2027

When will Bitcoin hit $150k? is now 1% (-1.3 pts). That is the live bet on BTC / MSTR / MARA.

How many SpaceX launches in August 2026?

Tickers SPCX

P: 45%
Δ pts: -1
End: Aug 31, 2026

How many SpaceX launches in August 2026? is now 45% (-1 pts). That is the live bet on SPCX.

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14

Tickers SPCX

P: 9%
Δ pts: -1
End: Aug 31, 2026

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 is now 9% (-1 pts). That is the live bet on SPCX.

Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)

Tickers TLT SPY

P: 40%
Δ pts: +1
End: Oct 28, 2026

Fed decisions (Jul–Oct) is now 40% (+1 pts). That is the live bet on MACRO.

Fed Decision in October?

Tickers TLT SPY

P: 24%
Δ pts: +1
End: Oct 28, 2026

Fed Decision in October? is now 24% (+1 pts). That is the live bet on MACRO.

Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026

Tickers BTC MSTR MARA

P: 14%
Δ pts: +1
End: Dec 31, 2026

Bitcoin vs. Gold vs. S&P 500 in 2026 is now 14% (+1 pts). That is the live bet on BTC / MSTR / MARA.

Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026?

Tickers MSTR

P: 4%
Δ pts: +0.9
End: Jan 1, 2027

Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026? is now 4% (+0.9 pts). That is the live bet on MSTR.

Bitcoin all time high by ___?

Tickers BTC MSTR MARA

P: 3%
Δ pts: -0.8
End: Jan 1, 2027

Bitcoin all time high by ___? is now 3% (-0.8 pts). That is the live bet on BTC / MSTR / MARA.

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

Tickers SPCX

P: 44%
Δ pts: +0.7
End: Dec 31, 2026

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? is now 44% (+0.7 pts). That is the live bet on SPCX.

What will SpaceX (SPCX) hit in August 2026?

Tickers SPCX

P: 1%
Δ pts: -0.5
End: Sep 1, 2026

What will SpaceX (SPCX) hit in August 2026? is now 1% (-0.5 pts). That is the live bet on SPCX.

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?

Tickers SPCX

P: 19%
Δ pts: -0.5
End: Dec 31, 2026

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...? is now 19% (-0.5 pts). That is the live bet on SPCX.

Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?

Tickers ETH ETHE

P: 51%
Δ pts: -0.5
End: Jan 1, 2027

Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first? is now 51% (-0.5 pts). That is the live bet on ETH / ETHE.

Amazon 2026 capex above ___?

Tickers AMZN

P: 86%
Δ pts: +0.5
End: Apr 30, 2027

Amazon 2026 capex above ___? is now 86% (+0.5 pts). That is the live bet on AMZN.

Fed Decision in September?

Tickers TLT SPY

P: 1%
Δ pts: -0.2
End: Sep 16, 2026

Fed Decision in September? is now 1% (-0.2 pts). That is the live bet on MACRO.

What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?

Tickers ETH ETHE

P: 40%
Δ pts: -0.2
End: Jan 1, 2027

What price will Ethereum hit in 2026? is now 40% (-0.2 pts). That is the live bet on ETH / ETHE.

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Tickers TLT SPY

P: 85%
Δ pts: +0.1
End: Dec 31, 2026

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? is now 85% (+0.1 pts). That is the live bet on MACRO.

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

Tickers TLT SPY

P: 15%
Δ pts: -0.1
End: Dec 31, 2026

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027? is now 15% (-0.1 pts). That is the live bet on MACRO.

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

Tickers TLT SPY

P: 5%
Δ pts: 0
End: Dec 9, 2026

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026? is now 5% (0 pts). That is the live bet on MACRO.

Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?

Tickers BTC MSTR MARA

P: 3%
Δ pts: 0
End: Dec 31, 2026

Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? is now 3% (0 pts). That is the live bet on BTC / MSTR / MARA.

Two SpaceX Starships dock together by…?

Tickers SPCX

P: 12%
Δ pts: 0
End: Dec 31, 2026

Two SpaceX Starships dock together by…? is now 12% (0 pts). That is the live bet on SPCX.

Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by...?

Tickers SPCX

P: 68%
Δ pts: 0
End: Dec 31, 2026

Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by...? is now 68% (0 pts). That is the live bet on SPCX.

Watchlist-mapped prediction events with live probability and change
Event	Tickers	p	Δ pts	Ends	So what
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase August 18-24?	MSTR	27%	-22	Aug 25, 2026	Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase August 18-24? is now 27% (-22 pts). That is the live bet on MSTR.
What will Silver (XAGUSD) hit in August 2026?	SLV	25%	-21	Sep 1, 2026	What will Silver (XAGUSD) hit in August 2026? is now 25% (-21 pts). That is the live bet on SLV.
Core PCE YoY - July 2026