
Prediction market · Polymarket
On February 28, Elon Musk posted that it was likely Starship would become fully reusable in 2025. You can see the X post here: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1895598258225106984 This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceX or Elon Musk announces that Starship is fully reusable by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note, this market refers to the Starship upper stage and does not require reusability for the Super-Heavy booster. For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is not necessary that an actual reuse occur, only that SpaceX or Elon Musk announces that Starship is fully reusable by this market's resolution date. The resolution source for this market is announcements by Elon Musk and SpaceX, or their official representatives.
Ticker
spacex-starship-fully-reusable-before-2028
Volume
886
24h volume
5
1w volume
5
Open interest
363
Liquidity
2.3K
Liquidity CLOB
2.3K
Start
Jun 10, 2026
End
Dec 31, 2027
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Jun 10, 2026
Event ID
576901
Slug
spacex-starship-fully-reusable-before-2028
Markets
1
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"context_description": "SpaceX's Starship V3 configuration and recent Flight 13 results drive the 63.5% market-implied probability of full reusability before 2028. The July 2026 test delivered the first intact ship reentry with an undamaged heat shield, precise landing burn using Raptor engines, and controlled ocean touchdown after deploying Starlink satellites. Multiple prior Super Heavy booster tower catches with Mechazilla arms, plus Musk's August update targeting a ship catch in coming months and the first ship reflight by year-end or early 2027, signal accelerating progress on rapid reuse cycles. These milestones build on V3's Raptor 3 upgrades and orbital refueling demos, though challenges like booster landing reliability and heat-shield durability for repeated flights remain key variables for traders assessing the 2027-2028 window.",
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