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Which company has top AI model end of June? (Style Control On)
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market. If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No") The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Ticker
which-company-has-top-ai-model-end-of-june-style-control-on
Volume
1.1M
24h volume
193.4K
1w volume
216.8K
Open interest
12.4K
Liquidity
182.2K
Liquidity CLOB
182.2K
Start
Oct 10, 2025
End
Jun 30, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Oct 10, 2025
Event ID
57704
Slug
which-company-has-top-ai-model-end-of-june-style-control-on
Markets
19
Raw event data
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"context_description": "Anthropic commands a 52.5% implied probability of holding the top spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) by June 30, 2026, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's unchallenged lead since its February 2026 release, bolstered by dozens of rapid updates in March that enhanced reasoning and agentic capabilities. Trader consensus reflects Anthropic's aggressive iteration pace amid competitive pressure, with Google's 16.5% share buoyed by its TPU compute dominance and full-stack advantages, while OpenAI's 9.5% trails due to GPT-5.x models lagging recent benchmarks. Chinese contenders like Z.ai (6.6%) and xAI (5.5%) gain traction on rumors of multimodal leaps, but no confirmed June launches loom; watch for developer previews or surprise drops that could shift the closely contested field.",
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}- Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?Vol 18.6KLiq 15.6KEnd Jun 30, 2026OpenOrder book
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