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Who will place first in the primary for Nancy Pelosi’s congressional seat (CA-11)?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Ticker
who-will-place-first-in-the-primary-for-nancy-pelosis-congressional-seat-ca-11
Volume
335.7K
24h volume
60
1w volume
2.3K
Open interest
9.3K
Liquidity
62.2K
Liquidity CLOB
62.2K
Start
Nov 24, 2025
End
Jun 2, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Nov 24, 2025
Event ID
89386
Slug
who-will-place-first-in-the-primary-for-nancy-pelosis-congressional-seat-ca-11
Markets
22
Raw event data
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"context_description": "In California's top-two primary for the open CA-11 seat vacated by retiring Rep. Nancy Pelosi, trader consensus gives state Sen. Scott Wiener a 49.5% implied probability to finish first, ahead of Saikat Chakrabarti at 34.8% and San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan at 11.2%, reflecting polls where Wiener holds a narrowing lead amid a crowded Democratic field. A new Chakrabarti internal poll (April 3-8) shows him surging to 28% (+8 points from March), trailing Wiener's 33% while Chan slips to 13%, fueled by his self-funded progressive challenge against Wiener's establishment-backed legislative experience. Recent debates sharpened contrasts on policy priorities, and SEIU California recently rescinded its Wiener endorsement over opposition to a local CEO tax, heightening uncertainty ahead of the June 2 primary.",
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}- Will Scott Wiener receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?Vol 34.5KLiq 3.0KEnd Jun 2, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Saikat Chakrabarti receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?Vol 19.3KLiq 2.5KEnd Jun 2, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Connie Chan receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?Vol 201.9KLiq 15.8KEnd Jun 2, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Jingchao Xiong receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?Vol 39.2KLiq 10.6KEnd Jun 2, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Darren Helton receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?Vol 17.4KLiq 9.9KEnd Jun 2, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Cole Bettles receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?Vol 13.8KLiq 10.9KEnd Jun 2, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will David Ganezer receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?Vol 9.7KLiq 9.8KEnd Jun 2, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Candidate J receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?Vol 0Liq 0End Jun 2, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Candidate L receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?Vol 0Liq 0End Jun 2, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Candidate N receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?Vol 0Liq 0End Jun 2, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will another candidate receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?Vol 0Liq 0End Jun 2, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Candidate I receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?Vol 0Liq 0End Jun 2, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Candidate K receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?Vol 0Liq 0End Jun 2, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Candidate M receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?Vol 0Liq 0End Jun 2, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Candidate O receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?Vol 0Liq 0End Jun 2, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Candidate C receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?Vol 0Liq 0End Jun 2, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Candidate E receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?Vol 0Liq 0End Jun 2, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Candidate G receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?Vol 0Liq 0End Jun 2, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Candidate B receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?Vol 0Liq 0End Jun 2, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Candidate D receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?Vol 0Liq 0End Jun 2, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Candidate F receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?Vol 0Liq 0End Jun 2, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Candidate H receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?Vol 0Liq 0End Jun 2, 2026OpenOrder book