Another Iranian diplomat expelled by April 30?

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    "context_description": "Trader consensus prices \"No\" at 93.5% for another Iranian diplomat expulsion by April 30, driven by recent de-escalation in Middle East tensions following a series of earlier diplomatic rebukes. Argentina declared Iran's chargé d'affaires persona non grata on April 2 amid its blacklisting of the IRGC as a terrorist group, while Lebanon ordered the Iranian ambassador to leave on March 24 (defied as of March 30) and Qatar expelled senior attachés on March 18 after Iranian missile actions. Since early April, however, US-Iran ceasefire agreements, VP Vance-led peace talks with Iranian officials on April 10, and Israel-Lebanon truce efforts have shifted focus to diplomacy, lowering escalation risks. Absent new provocations like airstrikes or plots, structural barriers to further expulsions remain high in this cooling phase.",
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