AWS service disrupted by April 30?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Amazon Web services experiences any service interruption event with a severity classification of “disrupted” by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The severity classification of an AWS service interruption event may be found on the AWS Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status) when the relevant event is selected under “List of events.” Only publicly visible service events listed on the AWS Health Dashboard status page qualify. Account-specific AWS Health events do not count. Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues whose severity AWS classifies as “disrupted.” This market will resolve as soon as the severity of any service interruption is classified as “disrupted”, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions to the severity classification of any event to a classification of “disrupted” will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe. If an incident is ongoing at this market’s resolution time, the market may remain open until that incident receives an official severity classification, and it will resolve based on the first such classification published. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Amazon Web Services Health Dashboard (https://health.aws.amazon.com/health/status).

Ticker

aws-service-disrupted-by-april-30

Volume

9.5K

24h volume

1.5K

1w volume

3.4K

Open interest

5.2K

Liquidity

1.1K

Liquidity CLOB

1.1K

Start

Mar 24, 2026

End

Apr 30, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Mar 24, 2026

Event ID

303513

Slug

aws-service-disrupted-by-april-30

Markets

1

Raw event data
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    "context_description": "Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 89.5% implied probability for no AWS service disruption by April 30, driven by the cloud giant's robust redundancy across 30+ global regions and swift resolution of a minor April 27 power loss in the EU-WEST-3 (Paris) Availability Zone, which impacted EC2 instances but was fully restored within hours per the AWS Health Dashboard. Ongoing recovery from March drone strikes damaging Middle East data centers (ME-SOUTH-1 and ME-CENTRAL-1) remains contained regionally, with no new operational issues reported in the past 48 hours. AWS's multi-layered failover architecture and historical 99.99% uptime underpin this strong sentiment, though unforeseen cyber attacks or hardware failures could still shift odds in the final days before resolution.",
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    "context_updated_at": "2026-04-28T01:10:14.232Z"
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