ChatGPT Outage by May 1?

{
  "id": "406722",
  "ticker": "chatgpt-outage-by-may-1-264",
  "slug": "chatgpt-outage-by-may-1-264",
  "title": "ChatGPT Outage by May 1?",
  "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nOnly incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.\n\nClassifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.\n\nQualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe. \n\nAn incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.\n\nRevisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Partial/Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
  "resolutionSource": "",
  "startDate": "2026-04-22T17:06:50.908069Z",
  "creationDate": "2026-04-22T17:06:50.908063Z",
  "endDate": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z",
  "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/chatgpt-outage-by-F7WtDYLOvwrm.png",
  "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/chatgpt-outage-by-F7WtDYLOvwrm.png",
  "active": true,
  "closed": false,
  "archived": false,
  "new": false,
  "featured": false,
  "restricted": true,
  "liquidity": 5135.5742,
  "volume": 331.04283300000003,
  "openInterest": 248.742833,
  "createdAt": "2026-04-22T14:46:33.714954Z",
  "updatedAt": "2026-04-22T23:23:18.628906Z",
  "competitive": 0.9596698735634942,
  "volume24hr": 331.042833,
  "volume1wk": 331.042833,
  "volume1mo": 331.042833,
  "volume1yr": 331.042833,
  "enableOrderBook": true,
  "liquidityClob": 5135.5742,
  "commentCount": 0,
  "markets": [
    {
      "id": "2052921",
      "question": "ChatGPT Outage by May 1?",
      "conditionId": "0x42516c4ffcae0b9a018f6e65e40b566ffe9ab87c10f7510e73abe39927d03f94",
      "slug": "chatgpt-outage-by-may-1-264",
      "resolutionSource": "",
      "endDate": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z",
      "liquidity": "4855.2152",
      "startDate": "2026-04-22T17:02:57.699813Z",
      "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/chatgpt-outage-by-F7WtDYLOvwrm.png",
      "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/chatgpt-outage-by-F7WtDYLOvwrm.png",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nOnly incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.\n\nClassifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.\n\nQualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe. \n\nAn incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.\n\nRevisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Partial/Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
      "outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
      "outcomePrices": "[\"0.705\", \"0.295\"]",
      "volume": "331.04283300000003",
      "active": true,
      "closed": false,
      "marketMakerAddress": "",
      "createdAt": "2026-04-22T14:46:34.107209Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-04-22T23:22:03.400367Z",
      "new": false,
      "featured": false,
      "submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
      "archived": false,
      "resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
      "restricted": true,
      "groupItemTitle": "",
      "groupItemThreshold": "0",
      "questionID": "0xe81247b81fef14839ecaf948238bf7b96d15371fae9df7dc39df98b9748a2aba",
      "enableOrderBook": true,
      "orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.01,
      "orderMinSize": 5,
      "volumeNum": 331.04283300000003,
      "liquidityNum": 4855.2152,
      "endDateIso": "2026-05-01",
      "startDateIso": "2026-04-22",
      "hasReviewedDates": true,
      "volume24hr": 331.042833,
      "volume1wk": 331.042833,
      "volume1mo": 331.042833,
      "volume1yr": 331.042833,
      "clobTokenIds": "[\"58544466475117194650993061070570972864025400264101535260439878094291514548020\", \"83385753999908210901778098889493872526028367955642248589251492251971096704152\"]",
      "umaBond": "500",
      "umaReward": "5",
      "volume24hrClob": 331.042833,
      "volume1wkClob": 331.042833,
      "volume1moClob": 331.042833,
      "volume1yrClob": 331.042833,
      "volumeClob": 331.04283300000003,
      "liquidityClob": 4855.2152,
      "makerBaseFee": 1000,
      "takerBaseFee": 1000,
      "customLiveness": 0,
      "acceptingOrders": true,
      "negRisk": false,
      "negRiskRequestID": "",
      "ready": false,
      "funded": false,
      "acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-04-22T17:01:54Z",
      "cyom": false,
      "competitive": 0.9596698735634942,
      "pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
      "approved": true,
      "clobRewards": [
        {
          "id": "222833",
          "conditionId": "0x42516c4ffcae0b9a018f6e65e40b566ffe9ab87c10f7510e73abe39927d03f94",
          "assetAddress": "0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174",
          "rewardsAmount": 0,
          "rewardsDailyRate": 10,
          "startDate": "2026-04-22",
          "endDate": "2500-12-31"
        }
      ],
      "rewardsMinSize": 100,
      "rewardsMaxSpread": 5.5,
      "spread": 0.01,
      "oneHourPriceChange": 0.02,
      "lastTradePrice": 0.72,
      "bestBid": 0.7,
      "bestAsk": 0.71,
      "automaticallyActive": true,
      "clearBookOnStart": true,
      "manualActivation": false,
      "negRiskOther": false,
      "umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
      "pendingDeployment": false,
      "deploying": false,
      "deployingTimestamp": "2026-04-22T17:00:42.908065Z",
      "rfqEnabled": false,
      "holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
      "feesEnabled": true,
      "requiresTranslation": false,
      "feeType": "tech_fees",
      "feeSchedule": {
        "exponent": 1,
        "rate": 0.04,
        "takerOnly": true,
        "rebateRate": 0.25
      }
    }
  ],
  "series": [
    {
      "id": "11209",
      "ticker": "chatgpt-outage",
      "slug": "chatgpt-outage",
      "title": "ChatGPT Outage",
      "seriesType": "single",
      "recurrence": "monthly",
      "image": "",
      "icon": "",
      "active": true,
      "closed": false,
      "archived": false,
      "createdAt": "2026-02-17T14:04:12.823669Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-04-22T23:19:37.020397Z",
      "volume24hr": 10412.180871,
      "volume": 331.04283300000003,
      "liquidity": 5135.5742,
      "commentCount": 62,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    }
  ],
  "tags": [
    {
      "id": "473",
      "label": "gpt",
      "slug": "gpt",
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-07 16:08:25.58+00",
      "createdAt": "2023-11-07T16:08:25.773Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-04-17T20:42:33.471684Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "1563",
      "label": "outage",
      "slug": "outage",
      "publishedAt": "2024-03-05 16:50:43.894+00",
      "createdAt": "2024-03-05T16:50:44.058Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-04-17T21:08:43.049073Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "1401",
      "label": "Tech",
      "slug": "tech",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2024-02-21 23:06:12.305+00",
      "createdAt": "2024-02-21T23:06:12.324Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-04-17T20:39:14.21105Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "439",
      "label": "AI",
      "slug": "ai",
      "forceShow": true,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 23:08:32.469+00",
      "updatedBy": 15,
      "createdAt": "2023-11-02T23:08:32.49Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-04-17T20:30:49.674936Z",
      "isCarousel": true,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "101644",
      "label": "chatgpt",
      "slug": "chatgpt",
      "createdAt": "2025-01-06T23:19:06.881021Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-04-17T17:20:19.890536Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "537",
      "label": "OpenAI",
      "slug": "openai",
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-17 23:46:12.865+00",
      "updatedBy": 15,
      "createdAt": "2023-11-17T23:46:12.878Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-04-17T17:23:11.703691Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    }
  ],
  "cyom": false,
  "showAllOutcomes": true,
  "showMarketImages": true,
  "enableNegRisk": false,
  "automaticallyActive": true,
  "seriesSlug": "chatgpt-outage",
  "negRiskAugmented": false,
  "pendingDeployment": false,
  "deploying": false,
  "requiresTranslation": false,
  "eventMetadata": {
    "context_description": "OpenAI's ChatGPT, the leading large language model chatbot, has faced frequent disruptions throughout April 2026, with verified incidents on April 20, 21, and 22 alone—including elevated conversation errors for free users, enterprise workspaces, and loading failures for ChatGPT and Codex services, per the official status page. These partial outages, often resolved within hours, stem from surging AI demand outpacing compute capacity amid rapid user growth and model scaling challenges. Trader consensus prices a 70.5% implied probability of another outage by May 1, reflecting this persistent instability pattern and absence of announced infrastructure upgrades, with just over a week remaining before resolution.",
    "context_requires_regen": true,
    "context_updated_at": "2026-04-22T23:15:00.246Z"
  }
}