Diddy released from custody in 2026?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sean "Diddy" Combs is released from custody between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Sean Combs is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Sean Combs is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Sean Combs to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Ticker

diddy-released-from-custody-in-2026

Volume

1.0K

24h volume

285

1w volume

1.0K

Open interest

451

Liquidity

3.0K

Liquidity CLOB

3.0K

Start

Apr 23, 2026

End

Dec 31, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Apr 23, 2026

Event ID

410546

Slug

diddy-released-from-custody-in-2026

Markets

1

Raw event data
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  "slug": "diddy-released-from-custody-in-2026",
  "title": "Diddy released from custody in 2026?",
  "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Sean \"Diddy\" Combs is released from custody between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nIf Sean Combs is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nIf Sean Combs is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to \"Yes\".\n\nTransporting Sean Combs to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to \"Yes\".\n\nTemporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
  "resolutionSource": "",
  "startDate": "2026-04-23T18:03:39.691734Z",
  "creationDate": "2026-04-23T18:03:39.69173Z",
  "endDate": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
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  "eventMetadata": {
    "context_description": "Sean \"Diddy\" Combs remains incarcerated at FCI Fort Dix following his October 2025 conviction on Mann Act prostitution-related charges and 50-month sentence, fueling trader consensus at 89.5% for \"No\" on release in 2026. Recent Federal Bureau of Prisons updates adjusted his projected release to April 15, 2028—advanced slightly via good-time credits and drug rehab participation—while his fast-tracked appeal hearing on April 9 yielded no immediate freedom, underscoring judicial concerns over prior bail denials tied to witness tampering risks. Absent a dramatic appellate reversal, historical patterns in federal appeals and the sentence's structure make 2026 discharge improbable, with traders betting on sustained custody amid ongoing supervised release terms.",
    "context_requires_regen": true,
    "context_updated_at": "2026-04-24T23:30:02.469Z"
  }
}