EU debt downgrade before 2027?

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    "context_description": "Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 60.5% implied probability of the European Union's long-term sovereign credit rating being downgraded by S&P, Moody's, or Fitch before end-2026, driven by spillover risks from member states' elevated debt trajectories—France's debt-to-GDP exceeding 116% at end-2025—and persistent fiscal deficits amid subdued Eurozone GDP growth forecasts of 1.0%-1.4% for 2026. Recent affirmations like Fitch's stable 'A+' on France (March 2026) and Moody's negative outlook on its Aa3 rating underscore vulnerability, compounded by EU bond issuance surpassing €1 trillion this year for NextGenEU and defense flexibility clauses. Key catalysts include scheduled mid-2026 rating reviews and Q2 fiscal data, testing the bloc's joint backing amid geopolitical strains.",
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