Evo Morales arrested by May 31

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    "context_description": "Despite an active arrest warrant for former President Evo Morales on human trafficking and statutory rape charges—issued in January 2025 and reaffirmed under the new center-right government of President Rodrigo Paz—traders price an 80% chance he evades detention by May 31. Morales reemerged in his Chapare stronghold on February 20 after a seven-week disappearance, prompting an interior ministry statement of arrest intent as his trial looms, but no enforcement actions have followed in the subsequent two months. This stasis, amid MAS party factionalism post-2025 elections that ousted the socialists, underscores logistical challenges in his cocalero base and risks of unrest, shaping trader consensus on the unlikelihood of custody before the deadline.",
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