Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?

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    "context_description": "**Chancellor Friedrich Merz's CDU-SPD grand coalition endures internal tensions over tax, pension, health reforms, and fuel aid amid the Iran war's energy shock, with recent clashes between CDU Economy Minister Katherina Reiche and SPD Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil prompting Merz's de-escalation efforts as of mid-April 2026.** Despite Merz's approval ratings hitting historic lows around 19%—the lowest among global leaders—and CDU/CSU slipping behind AfD in national polls following March state election setbacks in Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate, traders imply an 84.5% probability he stays in office before 2027. This consensus reflects the coalition's Bundestag majority, absence of no-confidence motions or snap election calls, and a full term extending to 2029, though remaining state elections through September could heighten pressures.",
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