Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?

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    "context_description": "Ongoing US-Iran indirect nuclear negotiations, mediated through Oman and Pakistan, remain deadlocked over uranium enrichment terms, with the US pushing a 20-year moratorium and Iran countering with a five-year suspension, as revealed in mid-April exchanges. Iran's April 27 proposal to phase a ceasefire by first reopening the Strait of Hormuz while postponing nuclear talks has introduced cautious optimism among traders, balancing against persistent IAEA concerns over Iran's stockpile and verification access from February reports. At 50% implied probability for an agreement by May 31, the closely contested odds reflect diplomatic momentum from sanctions pressure and conflict de-escalation signals versus historical sticking points on enrichment rights and timelines; breakthroughs like mutual concessions or IAEA progress could tip toward Yes, while escalation or hardline statements might favor No.",
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