StocksCryptoPredict

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Iran allowing unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz refers to a public agreement by Iran that commercial vessels may transit the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian authorization/permission, payment of fees to Iran, or other Iran-imposed restrictions. A public agreement that all restrictions imposed on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz by Iran as part of the US-Iran conflict which began on February 28, 2026, will be definitively lifted, without replacement by new restrictions, will qualify. A qualifying agreement must clearly indicate that Iran will not impose restrictions on commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz. General statements about the strait being “open”, de-escalation, security, increased transit in the Strait, or stability in the region, which do not clearly indicate that Iran will allow unrestricted commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz, will not qualify. An official pledge by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.

Ticker

iran-agrees-to-unrestricted-shipping-through-hormuz-by-may-31

Volume

97.2K

24h volume

19.0K

1w volume

97.2K

Open interest

60.7K

Liquidity

56.6K

Liquidity CLOB

56.6K

Start

Apr 29, 2026

End

May 31, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Apr 29, 2026

Event ID

429441

Slug

iran-agrees-to-unrestricted-shipping-through-hormuz-by-may-31

Markets

1

Raw event data
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  "title": "Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?",
  "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Iran publicly agrees to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nIran allowing unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz refers to a public agreement by Iran that commercial vessels may transit the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian authorization/permission, payment of fees to Iran, or other Iran-imposed restrictions. A public agreement that all restrictions imposed on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz by Iran as part of the US-Iran conflict which began on February 28, 2026, will be definitively lifted, without replacement by new restrictions, will qualify.\n\nA qualifying agreement must clearly indicate that Iran will not impose restrictions on commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz. General statements about the strait being “open”, de-escalation, security, increased transit in the Strait, or stability in the region, which do not clearly indicate that Iran will allow unrestricted commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz, will not qualify.\n\nAn official pledge by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.\n\nAny agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.\n\nAn agreement by Iran to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.\n\nThe primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.",
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      "id": "11621",
      "ticker": "unrestricted-shipping",
      "slug": "unrestricted-shipping",
      "title": "unrestricted shipping",
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      "label": "Iran",
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  "eventMetadata": {
    "context_description": "Amid fragile US-Iran ceasefire following escalated military actions in late February, Iran has tightened its grip on the Strait of Hormuz, announcing new orders on May 2 requiring Tehran approval for all transits, tolls from \"hostile\" nations like the US unless war reparations are paid, and a permanent ban on Israeli vessels, per parliamentary draft law. Shipping traffic lingers at a trickle—mere handfuls of vessels daily—despite occasional limited openings, while the US warned firms yesterday of sanctions for paying Iranian fees amid its own blockade of Iranian ports. Stalled diplomatic talks in Pakistan and mutual escalatory measures explain trader consensus at 85.5% \"No,\" viewing unrestricted access by May 31 as improbable absent major de-escalation.",
    "context_requires_regen": false,
    "context_updated_at": "2026-05-03T12:24:15.349Z"
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}