Major US official out by April 30?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to “Yes” if at least one individual holding one of the following governmental positions ceases to hold their position, prior to the end of their scheduled term, for any period of time between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The included positions are: - President of the United States - Vice-President of the United States - United States Cabinet Member - United States Senator - U.S. Representative - Governor of a US State - Member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the United States military - Chair of the Federal Reserve - Member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors - Supreme Court Justice - FBI Director - Speaker of the House - Senate Majority Leader - Senate Minority Leader - House Majority Leader - House Minority Leader For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market. An announcement of a relevant individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Acting or interim officials serving in these roles are not included. A qualifying individual leaving their position at the end of their regularly scheduled term (e.g. a house member’s replacement through election, or the end of a member of the Fed Board’s term) will not qualify. If a qualifying individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. For congressional leadership positions (e.g. Speaker of the House, Senate Majority Leader), the relevant individual is not required to cease holding their congressional seat, provided they cease holding their leadership position. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant individual and the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Ticker

major-us-official-out-by-april-30

Volume

11.4K

24h volume

10.9K

1w volume

11.4K

Open interest

2.1K

Liquidity

13.5K

Liquidity CLOB

13.5K

Start

Apr 24, 2026

End

Apr 30, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Apr 24, 2026

Event ID

411258

Slug

major-us-official-out-by-april-30

Markets

1

Tags

OutTrumpPolitics
Raw event data
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  "title": "Major US official out by April 30?",
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    {
      "id": "104719",
      "label": "Out",
      "slug": "out",
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    "context_description": "Despite recent Trump administration turbulence—including Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer's resignation on April 20 amid misconduct allegations, the third Cabinet-level exit in two months alongside oustings of Kristi Noem and Pam Bondi—traders price an 87.5% implied probability on \"No\" for another major US official departing by April 30. No fresh announcements, scandals, or firings have emerged in the past week, and the narrow four-day window limits escalation risks. Specific markets reflect this calm, with low odds on Pete Hegseth (Defense Secretary) or Kash Patel exiting soon, underscoring current stability amid high historical Cabinet turnover rates. Late developments like confirmation hearings or executive actions could alter consensus.",
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