Will Moderna (MRNA) beat quarterly earnings?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

As of market creation, Moderna is estimated to release earnings on May 1, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Moderna's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $-2.67 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moderna reports GAAP EPS greater than $-2.67 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Moderna releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”. If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024). Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS. Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS. Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS. Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated. Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.

Ticker

mrna-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-05-01-2026-neg2pt67

Volume

99

24h volume

69

1w volume

99

Open interest

62

Liquidity

135

Liquidity CLOB

135

Start

Apr 23, 2026

End

May 1, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Apr 23, 2026

Resolution source

https://seekingalpha.com/

Event ID

401604

Slug

mrna-quarterly-earnings-gaap-eps-05-01-2026-neg2pt67

Markets

1

Raw event data
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    "context_description": "Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 77% implied probability that Moderna (MRNA) will miss its Q1 2026 consensus EPS estimate of approximately -$2.50, driven by sustained weakness in COVID-19 vaccine revenue amid normalizing demand and high research and development burn rates outpacing nascent pipeline contributions from RSV and influenza programs. Recent analyst previews, including Zacks' April 24 alert on a negative earnings trend and downward consensus estimate revisions over the past 30 days, have intensified skepticism, with shares dipping to around $49 against a $45 average price target and \"Reduce\" rating. Key focus for the May 1 release centers on revenue near $236 million and updates on 2026 growth guidance up to 10%.",
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