Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Ticker

nord-stream-pipeline-turned-on-before-2027

Volume

9.5K

24h volume

285

1w volume

1.6K

Open interest

3.0K

Liquidity

15.8K

Liquidity CLOB

15.8K

Start

Nov 5, 2025

End

Dec 31, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Nov 5, 2025

Event ID

73224

Slug

nord-stream-pipeline-turned-on-before-2027

Markets

1

Raw event data
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  "title": "Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?",
  "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\n\"Commercial quantities\" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.\n\nThe resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.\n\n\n",
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  "eventMetadata": {
    "context_description": "Trader consensus reflects a 92.5% implied probability against the Nord Stream pipelines resuming gas flows before 2027, driven by stalled repairs since the 2022 sabotage amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and EU sanctions prohibiting Russian pipeline gas by late 2027. Germany denied revival talks in March 2025, a Nord Stream 2 repair permit expired in September 2025, and no official announcements signal progress despite Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov's unverified March 2026 claim of potential US involvement. Europe's diversification to LNG and renewables, coupled with unresolved sabotage probes implicating Ukrainian actors, erects formidable political, legal, and technical barriers. Only a major diplomatic thaw or war resolution could alter this outlook before the deadline.",
    "context_requires_regen": false,
    "context_updated_at": "2026-04-26T19:57:18.060Z"
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}