North Korea missile test/launch by April 30, 2026?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea (DPRK) launches a missile between market creation and the specified date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution. Launches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution. The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.

Ticker

north-korea-missile-testlaunch-by-april-30-2026-366

Volume

114

24h volume

114

1w volume

114

Open interest

83

Liquidity

1.9K

Liquidity CLOB

1.9K

Start

Apr 20, 2026

End

Apr 30, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Apr 20, 2026

Event ID

399945

Slug

north-korea-missile-testlaunch-by-april-30-2026-366

Markets

1

Raw event data
{
  "id": "399945",
  "ticker": "north-korea-missile-testlaunch-by-april-30-2026-366",
  "slug": "north-korea-missile-testlaunch-by-april-30-2026-366",
  "title": "North Korea missile test/launch by April 30, 2026?",
  "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if North Korea (DPRK) launches a missile between market creation and the specified date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.\n\nLaunches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nThe market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.",
  "resolutionSource": "",
  "startDate": "2026-04-20T16:39:27.078851Z",
  "creationDate": "2026-04-20T16:39:27.078843Z",
  "endDate": "2026-04-30T00:00:00Z",
  "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/north-korea-missile-launch-by-november-15-zwBNKi5pUPJh.jpg",
  "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/north-korea-missile-launch-by-november-15-zwBNKi5pUPJh.jpg",
  "active": true,
  "closed": false,
  "archived": false,
  "new": false,
  "featured": false,
  "restricted": true,
  "liquidity": 1857.6453,
  "volume": 114.18670799999998,
  "openInterest": 82.733438,
  "createdAt": "2026-04-20T16:13:09.030275Z",
  "updatedAt": "2026-04-21T02:52:04.526624Z",
  "competitive": 0.9936406995230525,
  "volume24hr": 114.186708,
  "volume1wk": 114.186708,
  "volume1mo": 114.186708,
  "volume1yr": 114.186708,
  "enableOrderBook": true,
  "liquidityClob": 1857.6453,
  "commentCount": 0,
  "markets": [
    {
      "id": "2034761",
      "question": "North Korea missile test/launch by April 30, 2026?",
      "conditionId": "0xf2f9116c48d6b64c5ecd1a4e89a84af0e4af84bbfba8ac64f6a60fa2b760b95e",
      "slug": "north-korea-missile-testlaunch-by-april-30-2026-366",
      "resolutionSource": "",
      "endDate": "2026-04-30T00:00:00Z",
      "liquidity": "1842.2178",
      "startDate": "2026-04-20T16:34:35.276353Z",
      "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/north-korea-missile-launch-by-november-15-zwBNKi5pUPJh.jpg",
      "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/north-korea-missile-launch-by-november-15-zwBNKi5pUPJh.jpg",
      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if North Korea (DPRK) launches a missile between market creation and the specified date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nOnly launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.\n\nLaunches of other systems such as SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a \"Yes\" resolution.\n\nThe market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.",
      "outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
      "outcomePrices": "[\"0.42\", \"0.58\"]",
      "volume": "114.18670799999998",
      "active": true,
      "closed": false,
      "marketMakerAddress": "",
      "createdAt": "2026-04-20T16:13:09.412225Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-04-21T02:53:43.481295Z",
      "new": false,
      "featured": false,
      "submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
      "archived": false,
      "resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
      "restricted": true,
      "groupItemTitle": "",
      "groupItemThreshold": "0",
      "questionID": "0x7545ceedb1a70d08cf8aaa719a92d0dc3771a40de9291c18b01167801b9d2f53",
      "enableOrderBook": true,
      "orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.01,
      "orderMinSize": 5,
      "volumeNum": 114.18670799999998,
      "liquidityNum": 1842.2178,
      "endDateIso": "2026-04-30",
      "startDateIso": "2026-04-20",
      "hasReviewedDates": true,
      "volume24hr": 114.186708,
      "volume1wk": 114.186708,
      "volume1mo": 114.186708,
      "volume1yr": 114.186708,
      "clobTokenIds": "[\"71411782284476452142521468807291295485157847287933816124858767866487665442177\", \"79095927940395336985360293202524421141771377364493998879283181362729789686898\"]",
      "umaBond": "500",
      "umaReward": "5",
      "volume24hrClob": 114.186708,
      "volume1wkClob": 114.186708,
      "volume1moClob": 114.186708,
      "volume1yrClob": 114.186708,
      "volumeClob": 114.18670799999998,
      "liquidityClob": 1842.2178,
      "customLiveness": 0,
      "acceptingOrders": true,
      "negRisk": false,
      "negRiskRequestID": "",
      "ready": false,
      "funded": false,
      "acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2026-04-20T16:33:32Z",
      "cyom": false,
      "competitive": 0.9936406995230525,
      "pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
      "approved": true,
      "rewardsMinSize": 50,
      "rewardsMaxSpread": 4.5,
      "spread": 0.14,
      "lastTradePrice": 0.56,
      "bestBid": 0.35,
      "bestAsk": 0.49,
      "automaticallyActive": true,
      "clearBookOnStart": true,
      "manualActivation": false,
      "negRiskOther": false,
      "umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
      "pendingDeployment": false,
      "deploying": false,
      "deployingTimestamp": "2026-04-20T16:32:05.260249Z",
      "rfqEnabled": false,
      "holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
      "feesEnabled": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false,
      "feeType": null
    }
  ],
  "series": [
    {
      "id": "10442",
      "ticker": "north-korea-missile-launch",
      "slug": "north-korea-missile-launch",
      "title": "North Korea missile launch",
      "seriesType": "single",
      "recurrence": "daily",
      "image": "",
      "icon": "",
      "active": true,
      "closed": false,
      "archived": false,
      "featured": false,
      "restricted": true,
      "createdAt": "2025-10-22T20:33:17.920713Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-04-21T02:52:17.748194Z",
      "volume24hr": 114.186708,
      "volume": 114.18670799999998,
      "liquidity": 1857.6453,
      "commentCount": 157,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    }
  ],
  "tags": [
    {
      "id": "351",
      "label": "North Korea",
      "slug": "north-korea",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:59:46.929+00",
      "createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:59:46.948Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-04-17T20:40:35.116069Z",
      "isCarousel": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "100265",
      "label": "Geopolitics",
      "slug": "geopolitics",
      "forceShow": true,
      "createdAt": "2024-06-12T20:13:03.615956Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-04-17T20:49:04.209055Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "101590",
      "label": "Kim Jong Un",
      "slug": "kim-jong-un",
      "createdAt": "2024-12-31T17:31:44.847092Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-04-17T20:51:29.14062Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    }
  ],
  "cyom": false,
  "showAllOutcomes": true,
  "showMarketImages": true,
  "enableNegRisk": false,
  "automaticallyActive": true,
  "seriesSlug": "north-korea-missile-launch",
  "negRiskAugmented": false,
  "pendingDeployment": false,
  "deploying": false,
  "requiresTranslation": false,
  "eventMetadata": {
    "context_description": "North Korea's April 19 test-fire of multiple short-range ballistic missiles toward the East Sea—its fourth launch this month and seventh in 2026, supervised by Kim Jong Un—marks the dominant recent military development, defying UN sanctions amid US-South Korea joint drills and US-Iran ceasefire talks expiring April 21. Despite this escalation signaling Pyongyang's persistent weapons buildup, trader consensus prices \"No\" at 58%, implying a post-salvo lull in the nine-day window to April 30, with no fresh provocations, official announcements, or detected preparations since. South Korea's Joint Chiefs and Japan's government condemned the action without triggering major diplomatic shifts, underscoring the unpredictable cadence of DPRK missile activity tied to perceived threats.",
    "context_requires_regen": false,
    "context_updated_at": "2026-04-21T02:44:46.191Z"
  }
}