OPEC dissolves in 2026?

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    "context_description": "The United Arab Emirates' shock announcement on April 28, 2026, to exit OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1—citing production quota disputes and national priorities—delivered a significant blow to the cartel's cohesion amid Strait of Hormuz tensions and volatile oil prices. Yet, trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 89.5% implied probability against full dissolution in 2026, driven by reassurances from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and OPEC leadership that the core group will endure, albeit weakened, with no further defections signaled. Recent OPEC+ ministerial meetings confirmed modest output hikes for May (206,000 bpd), underscoring ongoing coordination and voluntary cut adherence. Watch June's review for conformity amid Brent crude's four-year highs, as cascading exits remain a tail risk.",
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