OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange. OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD. Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange. If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed. If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.

Ticker

openai-1t-ipo-before-2027

Volume

264.9K

Open interest

18.1K

Liquidity

6.0K

Liquidity CLOB

6.0K

Start

Oct 30, 2025

End

Dec 31, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Oct 30, 2025

Event ID

68544

Slug

openai-1t-ipo-before-2027

Markets

1

Raw event data
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    "context_description": "Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 74.5% implied probability against OpenAI achieving a $1 trillion-plus IPO valuation before 2027, driven by fresh investor scrutiny of its $852 billion post-money valuation from the record $122 billion funding round closed March 31, 2026. Despite robust $2 billion monthly revenue—fueled by ChatGPT's 900 million weekly active users and enterprise adoption surpassing 40%—backers question repeated product roadmap shifts over the past six months to counter Anthropic and Google, labeling the company \"deeply unfocused.\" No S-1 filing has emerged, with Q4 2026 eyed speculatively amid high cash burn risks and competitive pressures; a Musk lawsuit verdict looms as a potential catalyst.",
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