Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Sanae Takaichi ceases to be Prime Minister of Japan for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Takaichi's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Sanae Takaichi and the government of Japan; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Ticker

sanae-takaichi-out-as-prime-minister-of-japan-in-2026

Volume

994

24h volume

841

1w volume

994

Open interest

564

Liquidity

18.5K

Liquidity CLOB

18.5K

Start

Apr 16, 2026

End

Dec 31, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Apr 16, 2026

Event ID

382868

Slug

sanae-takaichi-out-as-prime-minister-of-japan-in-2026

Markets

1

Raw event data
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  "title": "Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026?",
  "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if Sanae Takaichi ceases to be Prime Minister of Japan for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nAn announcement of Takaichi's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to \"Yes\", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.\n\nIf the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.\n\nThe resolution source for this market will be official information from Sanae Takaichi and the government of Japan; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.\n",
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      "question": "Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026?",
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      "label": "Politics",
      "slug": "politics",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-10-25 18:55:50.674+00",
      "updatedBy": 13,
      "createdAt": "2023-10-25T18:55:50.681Z",
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      "label": "PM",
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      "updatedAt": "2026-04-17T20:55:28.072182Z",
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  "eventMetadata": {
    "context_description": "Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's landslide victory in Japan's February 8 snap election, securing the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) a historic two-thirds supermajority in the House of Representatives, has solidified her position and driven trader consensus to an 88.5% implied probability she remains in office throughout 2026. This mandate minimizes risks of a no-confidence vote or early leadership challenge within the LDP, where no credible factional rivals have emerged. Recent approval ratings hover around 58-59% despite a slight dip, reflecting sustained public support amid her active agenda, including rallying the party for constitutional reform last week and pledges for Asian economic aid. Today's decision to skip a Yasukuni Shrine visit avoids diplomatic friction, underscoring political stability; only major scandals, health issues, or economic crises could shift odds.",
    "context_requires_regen": false,
    "context_updated_at": "2026-04-17T23:14:40.474Z"
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