Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Ticker

strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-may-15

Volume

428.4K

24h volume

242.8K

1w volume

428.4K

Open interest

258.7K

Liquidity

96.1K

Liquidity CLOB

96.1K

Start

Apr 22, 2026

End

May 15, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Apr 22, 2026

Event ID

407225

Slug

strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-may-15

Markets

1

Tags

Macro GeopoliticsHormuztransitStrait of HormuzIranOilshipsU.S. x IranEconomyGeopoliticsChina
Raw event data
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  "title": "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?",
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      "id": "11492",
      "ticker": "hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal",
      "slug": "hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal",
      "title": "Hormuz Traffic Returns to Normal",
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  "eventMetadata": {
    "context_description": "Ongoing Iranian military actions, including the seizure of two vessels in the Strait of Hormuz on April 23 and warnings to commercial shipping, have kept traffic at under 10% of pre-conflict levels, with only a handful of mostly Iran-linked ships transiting daily as of April 24. This follows a fragile US-Iran ceasefire strained by mutual blockades and firings on ships earlier in the week, deterring insurers and operators amid persistent escalation signals from Tehran and Washington. Absent diplomatic breakthroughs or de-escalation before May 15, trader consensus reflects deep skepticism on normalization, prioritizing physical hazards and geopolitical stalemate over brief reopenings that have repeatedly reversed.",
    "context_requires_regen": true,
    "context_updated_at": "2026-04-25T09:05:00.061Z"
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