Trump approval Up or Down this week?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to "Up" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on May 1, 2026, than on April 24, 2026. This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on April 24, 2026, than on May 1, 2026. This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date. The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date. If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead. If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead. This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Ticker

trump-approval-up-or-down-this-week-219

Volume

100

24h volume

100

1w volume

100

Open interest

92

Liquidity

720

Liquidity CLOB

720

Start

Apr 24, 2026

End

May 1, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Apr 24, 2026

Event ID

413581

Slug

trump-approval-up-or-down-this-week-219

Markets

1

Raw event data
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  "title": "Trump approval Up or Down this week?",
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    "context_description": "Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a closely contested 50% implied probability for President Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating rising this week, amid a stable but low average hovering around 39% approve as of April 24, balancing fresh polls showing second-term lows against slight daily upticks in trackers like Rasmussen's Approval Index from -18 to -16. Persistent drags from the ongoing Iran war—where majorities disapprove of military actions and peace negotiations stall—and inflation concerns, with economic approval dipping below 40%, have weighed on ratings over the past week, featuring unfavorable AP-NORC and Reuters/Ipsos results. Tipping factors include final weekend polls, Iran diplomatic breakthroughs, or economic data releases before resolution.",
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    "context_updated_at": "2026-04-24T15:31:05.992Z"
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