UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026?

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    "context_description": "Trader consensus reflects an 85.5% implied probability against UAE-Qatar severing diplomatic relations in 2026, anchored by sustained Gulf Cooperation Council reconciliation since the 2021 Al-Ula agreement and recent high-level coordination. UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed hosted Qatar's Emir in Abu Dhabi for talks on regional stability as recently as late April, amid shared diplomatic pushes to de-escalate Iran tensions and Yemen rifts—evident in Qatar's March condemnation of attacks on UAE interests in Iraq. UAE's abrupt OPEC exit last week echoes Qatar's 2019 departure without reigniting frictions, prioritizing economic and security alignment over historical blockade grievances, with no escalatory signals in the past 30 days.",
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