U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. - Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models. - Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training. - Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web. - Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Ticker

us-enacts-ai-safety-bill-before-2027

Volume

97.3K

24h volume

6.0K

1w volume

9.7K

Open interest

1.8K

Liquidity

13.0K

Liquidity CLOB

13.0K

Start

Nov 12, 2025

End

Dec 31, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Nov 12, 2025

Event ID

79075

Slug

us-enacts-ai-safety-bill-before-2027

Markets

1

Raw event data
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    "context_description": "Trader consensus reflects a 74% implied probability against the U.S. enacting an AI safety bill before 2027, stemming from stalled federal legislative progress in the 119th Congress despite bipartisan introductions like the reintroduced Cantwell-Young bill authorizing the NIST AI Safety Institute in February 2026. The Trump administration's March 20 National AI Policy Framework urged Congress toward light-touch federal preemption of state laws on issues like child safety and scams, but this nonbinding roadmap has not advanced binding legislation amid industry lobbying for innovation over stringent safety mandates. Recent state actions, including Washington's governor signing two major AI safety bills on March 24 and Nebraska's Conversational AI Safety Act, underscore a fragmented regulatory patchwork, with no federal floor votes, committee advancements, or whip counts signaling passage before year-end lame-duck session amid midterm pressures.",
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