US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

Ticker

us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-may-31-974

Volume

10.0K

24h volume

9.9K

1w volume

10.0K

Open interest

6.9K

Liquidity

39.4K

Liquidity CLOB

39.4K

Start

Apr 29, 2026

End

May 31, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Apr 29, 2026

Event ID

429471

Slug

us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-may-31-974

Markets

1

Raw event data
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  "title": "US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?",
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      "id": "104010",
      "label": "Iran Ceasefire",
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  "eventMetadata": {
    "context_description": "President Trump's April 29 rejection of Iran's latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz while postponing nuclear talks has solidified trader consensus against a US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31, with \"No\" implying 84.5% probability. US officials view Tehran's offer as lacking concessions on its nuclear program and ballistic missiles, amid a fragile ceasefire following recent military strikes and an ongoing naval blockade. Negotiations remain at an impasse, with the administration demanding comprehensive resolution before easing sanctions or restrictions. The one-month timeline, historical diplomatic failures like the 2018 JCPOA withdrawal, and absence of scheduled breakthroughs underscore significant barriers, though a major Iranian concession or escalation signal could shift odds.",
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    "context_updated_at": "2026-04-30T04:41:32.406Z"
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