US x Cuba military clash in 2026?

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    "context_description": "Amid heightened US-Cuba tensions from tightened oil sanctions, economic pressure on Havana, and President Trump's March rhetoric signaling \"Cuba is next,\" Pentagon contingency planning for potential operations surfaced in mid-April reports, yet trader consensus prices \"No\" military clash at 59% implied probability. Recent US delegations to Havana on April 18-21 pressed Cuban leadership for political reforms and prisoner releases—yielding some concessions—while Cuba seeks blockade relief, underscoring open diplomatic channels over escalation. Absent triggering incidents like border confrontations or failed talks, and with Cuba's limited military capabilities amid blackouts, markets reflect wariness of high costs for intervention, prioritizing sanctions absent a green light from the White House before year-end.",
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