Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by May 31?

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  "title": "Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by May 31?",
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    "context_description": "Trader consensus reflects a 78% implied probability on \"No\" due to the absence of Department of Justice or FBI indictments explicitly charging an individual as an Iranian agent—such as an IRGC operative, spy, or covert operative—in espionage, assassination plots, or intelligence activities since the March 6 conviction of Asif Merchant in a prior murder-for-hire scheme. Recent cases, including the April 19 arrest of Shamim Mafi for sanctions violations in brokering Iranian arms sales to Sudan and the April 25 indictment of Jafar Tafakori for migrant smuggling, involve Iranian nationals but focus on economic crimes rather than qualifying agency allegations. With no fresh announcements in late April and the May 31 deadline nearing amid ongoing U.S. sanctions enforcement, markets anticipate no qualifying developments.",
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