Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30?

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  "description": "Donald Trump and the United States sent invitations to countries around the world, inviting them to join the US-led Board of Peace which will oversee conflict resolution in Gaza and elsewhere (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-names-rubio-blair-kushner-gaza-board-under-trumps-plan-2026-01-17/).\n\nThis market will resolve to “Yes” if any new country joins the Board of Peace between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nA country will be considered to have joined the Board of Peace if either of the following conditions are met:\n\n- That country's government publicly and definitively announces that the country will join the Board of Peace as a founding member, permanent member, or as any other type of member state.\n\n- Official information from the country’s government or a consensus of credible reporting demonstrates that the listed country has formally joined the Board of Peace (e.g. an authorized representative has signed the charter of the Board of Peace).\n\nOnly statements or announcements which are definitive in their expression of intent to join the Board of Peace will qualify (e.g. “we agree to join the board of peace,” “we accepted an invitation to the board of peace,” etc.). Statements which are not definitive in their expression of intent to join (e.g. “we agree in principle”, “we will join pending further details”, “we are ready to do our part in working for the reconstruction of Gaza” etc.) will not count. \n\nQualifying announcements within this market’s timeframe will count regardless of when the relevant country intends to join the board of peace, or whether or not they ultimately join.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the listed country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
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    "context_description": "Trader consensus favors \"No\" at 75% implied probability that no new country will join the Board of Peace by June 30, driven by the absence of membership announcements since the February inaugural summit with 27 founding states including Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt, and Pakistan. Indonesia suspended participation in early March amid domestic protests over Palestinian issues and stalled Gaza reconstruction, highlighting geopolitical risks. The $1 billion contribution required for permanent seats beyond initial three-year terms deters prospects, while European holdouts like France and Germany cite concerns over the U.S.-led body's deviation from UN Security Council Resolution 2803 and Trump's chairman-for-life authority. No expansion events are scheduled, tempering expectations for late additions.",
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