Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

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    "context_description": "US intelligence assessments, including the ODNI's March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, indicate China lacks plans for a Taiwan invasion by 2027, citing incomplete PLA modernization and leadership purges disrupting command structures, driving trader consensus to an 82% implied probability on \"No.\" Recent PLA joint combat patrols in the East China Sea (April 18) and responses to US-Philippines Balikatan exercises with a nearby carrier group reflect ongoing gray-zone coercion in the Taiwan Strait rather than invasion mobilization. Taiwan's defensive drills against potential blockades (April 14) and pending US arms sales approvals underscore deterrence, while Beijing promotes peaceful reunification (April 29), though cross-strait tensions persist amid economic pressures and alliance signals from Japan.",
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