StocksCryptoPredict

Will Russia capture Myropillia by May 31?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 51.026680° N, 35.262808° E in Myropillia, Sumy Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Myropillia1.png Intersection Location in Myropillia: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Myropillia2.png Myropillia Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Myropillia3.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/rxYpAiXxoUwi8tCbA The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Ticker

will-russia-capture-myropillia-by-may-31

Volume

949

24h volume

11

1w volume

624

Open interest

573

Liquidity

2.5K

Liquidity CLOB

2.5K

Start

Apr 20, 2026

End

May 31, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Apr 20, 2026

Event ID

400059

Slug

will-russia-capture-myropillia-by-may-31

Markets

1

Tags

UkraineGeopoliticsUkraine Map
Raw event data
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  "title": "Will Russia capture Myropillia by May 31?",
  "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 51.026680° N, 35.262808° E in Myropillia, Sumy Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nOnce Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIntersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Myropillia1.png\n\nIntersection Location in Myropillia: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Myropillia2.png \n\nMyropillia Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Myropillia3.png\n\nLocation on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/rxYpAiXxoUwi8tCbA\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.",
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      "question": "Will Russia capture Myropillia by May 31?",
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      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 51.026680° N, 35.262808° E in Myropillia, Sumy Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.\n\nThe intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.\n\nFor any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.\n\nIf Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.\n\nOnce Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.\n\nIntersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Myropillia1.png\n\nIntersection Location in Myropillia: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Myropillia2.png \n\nMyropillia Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Myropillia3.png\n\nLocation on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/rxYpAiXxoUwi8tCbA\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.\n\nNote: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.",
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      "id": "96",
      "label": "Ukraine",
      "slug": "ukraine",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:18:49.922+00",
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  "eventMetadata": {
    "context_description": "Russian forces intensified cross-border assaults in Sumy Oblast's Myropillia sector during their spring 2026 offensive, achieving incremental advances to eastern treelines and outskirts by late April while shelling the settlement, but Ukrainian units like the 21st Mechanized Brigade repelled mechanized attacks with drones and artillery, preserving control of central positions. Earlier in April, Ukraine repositioned to prepared lines near Myropilske amid Russian claims of gains in nearby villages, yet ISW maps confirm no seizure of the market's key intersection at 51.026680° N, 35.262808° E. Traders' 93% \"No\" consensus reflects this stalled progress, defensive resilience, and the narrow May 31 window, where only a dramatic escalation could shift control.",
    "context_requires_regen": true,
    "context_updated_at": "2026-05-01T22:58:44.968Z"
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