
Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by...?
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Huliaipilske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, (47.612850° N, 36.062680° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET). Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Ticker
will-russia-enter-huliaipilske-by-april-30
Volume
13.6K
24h volume
1.5K
1w volume
12.6K
Open interest
8.6K
Liquidity
31.8K
Liquidity CLOB
31.8K
Start
Apr 13, 2026
End
May 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Apr 13, 2026
Event ID
376028
Slug
will-russia-enter-huliaipilske-by-april-30
Markets
2
Raw event data
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"context_description": "Russian forces continue incremental advances via small-unit infiltration in the Huliaipole sector of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, entering Novoselivka and consolidating south of Huliaipilske as of April 26, amid ongoing assaults along tactical heights and highways northwest of the settlement. Ukrainian counterattacks, including HIMARS strikes and operations near Oleksandrivka, have disrupted Russian naval infantry redeployments and spring offensive momentum, per Institute for the Study of War assessments from early April. Heavy frontline clashes persist without major breakthroughs, with platoon-sized mechanized probes reported through April 19. Traders should monitor weather improvements enabling larger mechanized pushes and any escalation in Russian reserves, as these could accelerate progress toward full entry into Huliaipilske.",
"context_requires_regen": false,
"context_updated_at": "2026-04-27T14:28:07.148Z"
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}- Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31?Vol 3.3KLiq 19.3KEnd May 31, 2026OpenOrder book
- Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by April 30?Vol 10.3KLiq 12.5KEnd Apr 30, 2026OpenOrder book