Will Russia invade another country in 2026?

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    "context_description": "Russia's protracted war in Ukraine, marked by over 1.2 million casualties and monthly losses exceeding recruitment rates as of early April 2026, has severely strained its military capacity, leaving little room for opening a new front against another country like the Baltics or Moldova. Recent developments, including a stalled spring offensive launched in late March, intensified drone and missile strikes on Ukrainian cities through mid-April, and Ukrainian counteradvances in Zaporizhia and Kharkiv, underscore Moscow's focus on grinding gains in the east rather than escalation elsewhere. A March parliamentary bill authorizing troop deployments to protect Russian citizens abroad fueled rhetoric but lacks concrete invasion preparations amid NATO deterrence and economic sanctions. Traders' 86.5% consensus on \"No\" reflects this resource exhaustion and absence of verifiable mobilization signals for broader aggression before year-end.",
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