Will the flotilla reach Gaza by May 31?

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    "context_description": "The Global Sumud Flotilla, comprising around 20-70 boats from Spain, France, and other European ports, set sail on April 12, 2026, aiming to challenge Israel's longstanding naval blockade of Gaza amid the ongoing conflict. As of April 20, activists reported attempting to intercept an Israeli-bound cargo ship while progressing through the Mediterranean, but no vessels have reached Gaza waters. Traders' 94.5% implied probability on \"No\" reflects Israel's consistent enforcement of the maritime blockade—upheld since 2007 for security reasons—with all prior flotillas, including 2025 missions, intercepted by IDF Navy forces in international waters and activists detained. Regional tensions, including US naval presence, reinforce expectations of pre-May 31 halt absent major diplomatic shifts.",
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