Will the UK designate the IRGC a terrorist organization by June 30?

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    "context_description": "UK traders' 92% implied probability on \"No\" stems from Prime Minister Keir Starmer's recent announcement of legislation to proscribe state-backed groups like Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), but with introduction planned for July—after the June 30 deadline. The official Home Office proscribed terrorist organisations list, last updated January 28, 2026, excludes the IRGC despite its EU terrorist designation in February and prior US/Canadian listings. Cross-party calls, Iranian protest crackdowns, and security threats have built momentum, yet the Terrorism Act 2000's focus on non-state actors necessitates new powers via parliamentary process, including potential King's Speech tabling. Late-breaking diplomatic shifts or expedited votes could alter odds, but procedural timelines dominate trader consensus.",
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