X banned in any European country by December 31?

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  "title": "X banned in any European country by December 31?",
  "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the use of X/Twitter is banned within any European country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City.\n\nA ban will qualify if legislation is enacted or government action is taken to bar the respective country's citizens from downloading and/or viewing X/Twitter, and/or posting on X/Twitter. Any legislation or government action that meets these standards will qualify, regardless of whether or when the ban goes into effect.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the respective government and X/Twitter; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
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      "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the use of X/Twitter is banned within any European country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nFor the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City.\n\nA ban will qualify if legislation is enacted or government action is taken to bar the respective country's citizens from downloading and/or viewing X/Twitter, and/or posting on X/Twitter. Any legislation or government action that meets these standards will qualify, regardless of whether or when the ban goes into effect.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the respective government and X/Twitter; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.",
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  "tags": [
    {
      "id": "128",
      "label": "Twitter",
      "slug": "twitter",
      "forceShow": false,
      "publishedAt": "2023-11-02 21:23:18.725+00",
      "createdAt": "2023-11-02T21:23:18.747Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-04-17T21:09:02.118049Z",
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      "label": "Politics",
      "slug": "politics",
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      "id": "282",
      "label": "Elon Musk",
      "slug": "elon-musk",
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      "label": "Culture",
      "slug": "pop-culture",
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    "context_description": "Trader consensus on Polymarket favors \"No\" at 57.5% implied probability for X facing a ban in any European country by December 31, driven by the European Commission's preference for escalating Digital Services Act (DSA) fines over outright platform prohibitions. The landmark €120 million penalty in December 2025 targeted X's paid verification system, ad transparency failures, and researcher data access, prompting X's February 2026 legal challenge at Europe's top court and submission of a blue check compliance plan by March. While tensions persist amid content moderation disputes and retaliatory moves like suspending the Commission's ad account, Brussels has cautioned member states against national overreach, signaling restraint. Key catalysts include ongoing court rulings and potential further DSA deadlines, with historical precedent favoring fines for very large platforms like X to enforce policy without disrupting user access.",
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    "context_updated_at": "2026-04-25T09:11:41.656Z"
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