
Prediction market · Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China's General Secretary of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping, is removed from power for any length of time between July 3, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation from his role as General Secretary, or is otherwise dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as General Secretary within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ticker
xi-jinping-out-before-2027
Volume
12.3M
24h volume
9.9K
1w volume
249.9K
Open interest
3.8M
Liquidity
249.5K
Liquidity CLOB
249.5K
Start
Jul 3, 2025
End
Dec 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Jul 3, 2025
Event ID
30828
Slug
xi-jinping-out-before-2027
Markets
1
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"title": "Xi Jinping out before 2027?",
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"context_description": "Xi Jinping’s consolidated authority within the Chinese Communist Party, reinforced by ongoing personnel purges, loyalty requirements, and the absence of any designated successor, underpins the 95.9% trader consensus against his removal before 2027. Recent analyses ahead of the 21st Party Congress, expected in late 2027, indicate he will likely secure a fourth term, with norms such as age-based retirements applying mainly to other Politburo Standing Committee members while institutional changes like the 2018 removal of presidential term limits enable extended tenure. No verified challenges from elite networks or major policy reversals have emerged in the past year to shift this positioning. Scenarios that could still alter outcomes include abrupt health developments, an unforeseen economic or security crisis prompting internal realignment, or unexpected elite pushback before the congress convenes.",
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