Xi Jinping out before 2027?

Prediction market · Polymarket

Overview

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China's General Secretary of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping, is removed from power for any length of time between July 3, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation from his role as General Secretary, or is otherwise dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as General Secretary within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Ticker

xi-jinping-out-before-2027

Volume

7.8M

24h volume

10.4K

1w volume

186.1K

Open interest

2.4M

Liquidity

152.2K

Liquidity CLOB

152.2K

Start

Jul 3, 2025

End

Dec 31, 2026

Status

Active

Access

Restricted

Created

Jul 3, 2025

Event ID

30828

Slug

xi-jinping-out-before-2027

Markets

1

Raw event data
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  "title": "Xi Jinping out before 2027?",
  "description": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if China's General Secretary of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping, is removed from power for any length of time between July 3, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nCCP General Secretary Xi Jinping will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation from his role as General Secretary, or is otherwise dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as General Secretary within this market's timeframe.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.",
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    "context_description": "Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects Xi Jinping's unchallenged dominance as China's general secretary of the Communist Party, with \"No\" implying a 92.7% probability he remains in power through 2026 ahead of the 21st Party Congress. Recent military purges, including the January 2026 ousters of top Central Military Commission figures like Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli—veterans overseeing the People's Liberation Army—signal Xi's consolidation of control amid an anti-corruption campaign, the largest since the 1989 Tiananmen era. Xi chaired Politburo Standing Committee meetings in January, approved 2026 economic plans, and directed the 15th Five-Year Plan rollout (2026-2030), underscoring institutional stability. A March Politburo shake-up and reports of further elite removals reinforce his authority, with no verified health or resignation developments. Late-breaking scandals or factional challenges could shift odds, but historical precedent favors continuity.",
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