ECB rate cut in 2026?

{
  "id": "118468",
  "ticker": "ecb-rate-cut-in-2026",
  "slug": "ecb-rate-cut-in-2026",
  "title": "ECB rate cut in 2026?",
  "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market may not resolve to \"No\" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
  "resolutionSource": "",
  "startDate": "2025-12-23T22:46:43.33909Z",
  "creationDate": "2025-12-23T22:46:43.339088Z",
  "endDate": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
  "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/ecb-interest-rates-april-2025-DJ5nB6uaqtx5.png",
  "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/ecb-interest-rates-april-2025-DJ5nB6uaqtx5.png",
  "active": true,
  "closed": false,
  "archived": false,
  "new": false,
  "featured": false,
  "restricted": true,
  "liquidity": 1506.7885,
  "volume": 28293.380109000016,
  "openInterest": 6680.021478,
  "createdAt": "2025-12-23T04:01:26.373342Z",
  "updatedAt": "2026-06-18T01:09:30.922892Z",
  "competitive": 0.9071117561683599,
  "volume24hr": 27.532652,
  "volume1wk": 43.403127,
  "volume1mo": 380.284954,
  "volume1yr": 28293.380108999987,
  "enableOrderBook": true,
  "liquidityClob": 1506.7885,
  "commentCount": 1,
  "markets": [
    {
      "id": "999108",
      "question": "ECB rate cut in 2026?",
      "conditionId": "0x7afb0968d23370cf4daf85e6a483c45197181ffbc26122465af70ee15e56d286",
      "slug": "ecb-rate-cut-in-2026",
      "resolutionSource": "",
      "endDate": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z",
      "liquidity": "1506.7885",
      "startDate": "2025-12-23T22:45:13.616002Z",
      "image": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/ecb-interest-rates-april-2025-DJ5nB6uaqtx5.png",
      "icon": "https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/ecb-interest-rates-april-2025-DJ5nB6uaqtx5.png",
      "description": "This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.\n\nThis market may not resolve to \"No\" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.\n\nThe primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.",
      "outcomes": "[\"Yes\", \"No\"]",
      "outcomePrices": "[\"0.18\", \"0.82\"]",
      "volume": "28293.380109000016",
      "active": true,
      "closed": false,
      "marketMakerAddress": "",
      "createdAt": "2025-12-23T04:01:27.188375Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-06-18T01:09:14.079579Z",
      "new": false,
      "featured": false,
      "submitted_by": "0x91430CaD2d3975766499717fA0D66A78D814E5c5",
      "archived": false,
      "resolvedBy": "0x65070BE91477460D8A7AeEb94ef92fe056C2f2A7",
      "restricted": true,
      "groupItemTitle": "",
      "groupItemThreshold": "0",
      "questionID": "0x602519e0ab8304241a7eb0b1a743a5938cb065b5b78bab09740e4cecd55a778e",
      "enableOrderBook": true,
      "orderPriceMinTickSize": 0.01,
      "orderMinSize": 5,
      "volumeNum": 28293.380109000016,
      "liquidityNum": 1506.7885,
      "endDateIso": "2026-12-31",
      "startDateIso": "2025-12-23",
      "hasReviewedDates": true,
      "volume24hr": 27.532652,
      "volume1wk": 43.403127,
      "volume1mo": 380.284954,
      "volume1yr": 28293.380108999987,
      "clobTokenIds": "[\"63360646175488031611133855389183515534733634266770407912899019617490090363649\", \"1613696185017940937106251472506729214596352156507375779024162693253286039648\"]",
      "umaBond": "500",
      "umaReward": "5",
      "volume24hrClob": 27.532652,
      "volume1wkClob": 43.403127,
      "volume1moClob": 380.284954,
      "volume1yrClob": 28293.380108999987,
      "volumeClob": 28293.380109000016,
      "liquidityClob": 1506.7885,
      "makerBaseFee": 1000,
      "takerBaseFee": 1000,
      "customLiveness": 0,
      "acceptingOrders": true,
      "negRisk": false,
      "negRiskRequestID": "",
      "ready": false,
      "funded": false,
      "acceptingOrdersTimestamp": "2025-12-23T22:44:51Z",
      "cyom": false,
      "competitive": 0.9071117561683599,
      "pagerDutyNotificationEnabled": false,
      "approved": true,
      "rewardsMinSize": 0,
      "rewardsMaxSpread": 0,
      "spread": 0.02,
      "oneDayPriceChange": 0.005,
      "oneWeekPriceChange": 0.045,
      "oneMonthPriceChange": 0.06,
      "lastTradePrice": 0.19,
      "bestBid": 0.17,
      "bestAsk": 0.19,
      "automaticallyActive": true,
      "clearBookOnStart": true,
      "manualActivation": false,
      "negRiskOther": false,
      "umaResolutionStatuses": "[]",
      "pendingDeployment": false,
      "deploying": false,
      "deployingTimestamp": "2025-12-23T22:10:07.572386Z",
      "rfqEnabled": false,
      "holdingRewardsEnabled": false,
      "feesEnabled": true,
      "requiresTranslation": false,
      "feeType": "economics_fees",
      "feeSchedule": {
        "exponent": 1,
        "rate": 0.05,
        "takerOnly": true,
        "rebateRate": 0.25
      }
    }
  ],
  "tags": [
    {
      "id": "100410",
      "label": "Europe",
      "slug": "europe",
      "createdAt": "2024-09-03T23:38:52.652644Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-04-17T17:16:28.117581Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "101800",
      "label": "Economic Policy",
      "slug": "economic-policy",
      "forceShow": false,
      "createdAt": "2025-02-06T18:05:50.554703Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-04-17T20:34:30.088167Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "100328",
      "label": "Economy",
      "slug": "economy",
      "forceShow": false,
      "createdAt": "2024-08-05T05:34:54.235643Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-04-17T20:29:06.948273Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "1476",
      "label": "eu",
      "slug": "eu",
      "publishedAt": "2024-02-27 19:09:27.069+00",
      "createdAt": "2024-02-27T19:09:27.118Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-04-17T20:40:55.167153Z",
      "requiresTranslation": false
    },
    {
      "id": "103176",
      "label": "Global Rates",
      "slug": "Global-Rates",
      "forceShow": false,
      "createdAt": "2026-01-16T22:01:30.899064Z",
      "updatedAt": "2026-04-17T17:21:01.178149Z",
      "isCarousel": false,
      "requiresTranslation": false
    }
  ],
  "cyom": false,
  "showAllOutcomes": true,
  "showMarketImages": true,
  "enableNegRisk": false,
  "automaticallyActive": true,
  "negRiskAugmented": false,
  "cumulativeMarkets": false,
  "pendingDeployment": false,
  "deploying": false,
  "requiresTranslation": false,
  "eventMetadata": {
    "context_description": "Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and associated energy price surges have driven euro-area headline inflation projections to 3.0% for 2026, prompting the ECB to raise its deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% on June 11. Staff forecasts now show core inflation averaging 2.5% through 2027 amid second-round risks, with growth revised lower to 0.8%. Market pricing and economist surveys fully embed additional tightening or holds rather than easing through year-end, reflecting the Governing Council’s data-dependent stance and commitment to the 2% target. A swift resolution of energy shocks or sharper disinflation could alter the path, but current conditions sustain the consensus against cuts in 2026.",
    "context_requires_regen": true,
    "context_updated_at": "2026-06-17T22:31:49.916Z"
  }
}