ECB rate cut in 2026?

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  "eventMetadata": {
    "context_description": "**Recent geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict with Iran and resulting disruptions to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, have driven up energy prices and prompted the ECB to raise its key interest rates by 25 basis points in June 2026, setting the deposit facility rate at 2.25%.** \n\nEurosystem staff projections now show headline inflation averaging 3.0% for 2026—well above the 2% target—with upward revisions attributed to higher energy costs feeding into broader price pressures. Economic growth forecasts were simultaneously downgraded to 0.8% for the year, reflecting the impact on real incomes and confidence. \n\nMarket pricing for upcoming meetings, including July and September 2026, points to a high likelihood of rates holding steady or rising further rather than declining, as policymakers prioritize containing inflation over easing amid these supply shocks. This data-dependent stance, reinforced by recent official statements and minutes indicating openness to additional hikes, underpins trader consensus against any rate reduction during the remainder of 2026.",
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