
Prediction market · Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location. Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Ticker
will-israel-reopen-its-embassy-in-iran-in-2026
Volume
190.0K
24h volume
28.5K
1w volume
29.1K
Open interest
13.9K
Liquidity
10.4K
Liquidity CLOB
10.4K
Start
Mar 6, 2026
End
Dec 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Mar 6, 2026
Event ID
248268
Slug
will-israel-reopen-its-embassy-in-iran-in-2026
Markets
1
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"title": "Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?",
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{
"id": "104064",
"label": "Israel x Iran",
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"eventMetadata": {
"context_description": "**Recent military escalation between Israel, the United States, and Iran has sharply reduced prospects for any diplomatic reopening.** \n\nDirect strikes launched in late February 2026, including Operation Epic Fury targeting Iranian nuclear, missile, and leadership sites, triggered weeks of retaliatory exchanges, involvement of Iranian-backed proxies in Lebanon, and a fragile ceasefire process that remains incomplete as of mid-June. Negotiations mediated in part by Pakistan center on nuclear limits, ballistic missiles, the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, and halting hostilities, with a memorandum of understanding scheduled for signature on June 19 and a potential final agreement within 60 days. \n\nIsraeli statements continue to frame Iran as a primary security threat, with no public signals of interest in normalized ties or embassy operations. Iran severed formal relations after the 1979 revolution, and the current environment of active conflict, leadership losses, and unresolved core disputes makes embassy reopening before year-end highly improbable under prevailing conditions. Ongoing tensions and verification requirements further constrain near-term diplomatic breakthroughs.",
"context_requires_regen": true,
"context_updated_at": "2026-06-18T01:54:43.148Z"
}
}Tickers mapped from the event's catalyst themes.
Exxon Mobil Corporation
Escalation can move crude prices, refining margins, fuel costs, defense demand, and risk premiums.
Chevron Corporation
Escalation can move crude prices, refining margins, fuel costs, defense demand, and risk premiums.
ConocoPhillips
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Occidental Petroleum
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EOG Resources
Escalation can move crude prices, refining margins, fuel costs, defense demand, and risk premiums.
Diamondback Energy
Escalation can move crude prices, refining margins, fuel costs, defense demand, and risk premiums.
Devon Energy
Escalation can move crude prices, refining margins, fuel costs, defense demand, and risk premiums.
APA Corporation
Escalation can move crude prices, refining margins, fuel costs, defense demand, and risk premiums.
Coterra
Escalation can move crude prices, refining margins, fuel costs, defense demand, and risk premiums.
Schlumberger Limited
Escalation can move crude prices, refining margins, fuel costs, defense demand, and risk premiums.
Halliburton
Escalation can move crude prices, refining margins, fuel costs, defense demand, and risk premiums.
Baker Hughes
Escalation can move crude prices, refining margins, fuel costs, defense demand, and risk premiums.
Valero Energy
Escalation can move crude prices, refining margins, fuel costs, defense demand, and risk premiums.
Marathon Petroleum
Escalation can move crude prices, refining margins, fuel costs, defense demand, and risk premiums.