Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)
Prediction market · Polymarket
Overview
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Ticker
fed-decisions-juloct-20260617191209856
Volume
715.7K
24h volume
3.6K
1w volume
45.1K
Open interest
57.4K
Liquidity
116.6K
Liquidity CLOB
116.6K
Start
Jun 17, 2026
End
Oct 28, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Jun 18, 2026
Event ID
606437
Slug
fed-decisions-juloct-20260617191209856
Markets
9
Raw event data
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"context_description": "Recent inflation readings around 3.4-3.5% year-over-year, combined with a resilient labor market showing unemployment near 4.1-4.2% and solid job gains, have anchored trader expectations for steady Fed policy. Following the July 29, 2026 FOMC decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% by a 9-3 vote amid three hawkish dissents, market-implied odds heavily favor Pause-Pause-Pause across the July-October meetings at 59%. Geopolitical tensions affecting energy prices and upcoming September CPI and employment data releases represent key swing factors that could shift the path, while the 40% \"Other\" category reflects lingering uncertainty over potential late-year adjustments.",
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}Related stocks
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