
Prediction market · Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate hikes will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ticker
fed-rate-hike-by
Volume
2.3M
24h volume
29.5K
1w volume
163.4K
Open interest
240.4K
Liquidity
189.6K
Liquidity CLOB
189.6K
Start
Mar 31, 2026
End
Oct 29, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Mar 31, 2026
Event ID
329566
Slug
fed-rate-hike-by
Markets
5
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"context_description": "Recent inflation readings, including July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year, combined with persistent energy price pressures from Middle East tensions, remain the dominant driver keeping a potential Federal Reserve rate hike in play despite the FOMC's July hold at the 3.50%-3.75% target range. A divided 9-3 vote with three dissents favoring a 25 basis point increase signaled internal hawkishness, while the subsequent weak July jobs report (-23,000 payrolls, 4.1% unemployment) has tempered near-term expectations and shifted CME FedWatch probabilities toward a September hold. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects this balance, with roughly even odds of any 2026 hike by the December meeting. Key upcoming catalysts include the August CPI release and the September 15-16 FOMC decision, where incoming data on prices and employment will determine whether labor-market softening outweighs inflation risks.",
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}Tickers mapped from the event's catalyst themes.
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Rates and inflation affect discount rates, loan demand, credit quality, consumer spending, housing, and long-duration equity multiples.
Bank of America Corporation
Rates and inflation affect discount rates, loan demand, credit quality, consumer spending, housing, and long-duration equity multiples.
Wells Fargo & Company
Rates and inflation affect discount rates, loan demand, credit quality, consumer spending, housing, and long-duration equity multiples.
Citigroup Inc.
Rates and inflation affect discount rates, loan demand, credit quality, consumer spending, housing, and long-duration equity multiples.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
Rates and inflation affect discount rates, loan demand, credit quality, consumer spending, housing, and long-duration equity multiples.
Morgan Stanley
Rates and inflation affect discount rates, loan demand, credit quality, consumer spending, housing, and long-duration equity multiples.
Charles Schwab Corporation
Rates and inflation affect discount rates, loan demand, credit quality, consumer spending, housing, and long-duration equity multiples.
Capital One
Rates and inflation affect discount rates, loan demand, credit quality, consumer spending, housing, and long-duration equity multiples.
American Express Company
Rates and inflation affect discount rates, loan demand, credit quality, consumer spending, housing, and long-duration equity multiples.
Rates and inflation affect discount rates, loan demand, credit quality, consumer spending, housing, and long-duration equity multiples.
Synchrony Financial
Rates and inflation affect discount rates, loan demand, credit quality, consumer spending, housing, and long-duration equity multiples.
Visa Inc.
Rates and inflation affect discount rates, loan demand, credit quality, consumer spending, housing, and long-duration equity multiples.
Mastercard Incorporated
Rates and inflation affect discount rates, loan demand, credit quality, consumer spending, housing, and long-duration equity multiples.
S&P Global Inc.
Rates and inflation affect discount rates, loan demand, credit quality, consumer spending, housing, and long-duration equity multiples.