
Prediction market · Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between August 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Ticker
how-many-spacex-launches-in-august-2026
Volume
3.7K
24h volume
100
1w volume
805
Open interest
2.8K
Liquidity
4.7K
Liquidity CLOB
4.7K
Start
Aug 7, 2026
End
Aug 31, 2026
Status
Active
Access
Restricted
Created
Aug 7, 2026
Event ID
811659
Slug
how-many-spacex-launches-in-august-2026
Markets
5
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"requiresTranslation": false
}
],
"cyom": false,
"showAllOutcomes": true,
"showMarketImages": false,
"enableNegRisk": true,
"automaticallyActive": true,
"seriesSlug": "monthly-spacex-launches",
"gmpChartMode": "default",
"negRiskAugmented": false,
"estimateValue": false,
"cumulativeMarkets": false,
"pendingDeployment": false,
"deploying": false,
"deployingTimestamp": "2026-08-07T17:07:00.777351Z",
"requiresTranslation": false,
"eventMetadata": {
"context_description": "SpaceX's aggressive Starlink deployment cadence, enabled by rapid Falcon 9 reusability and dual-coast operations, has driven the tight market around 14 or 15 total launches for August 2026. Multiple missions per week, including recent back-to-back flights for Starlink groups and dedicated payloads like Globalstar, have sustained momentum through mid-month, with additional Starlink attempts and a Falcon Heavy mission scheduled for late August adding upward pressure. Traders weigh the likelihood of weather delays, turnaround constraints, or extra opportunistic launches against historical monthly records, creating near-even odds between the top two outcomes while lower probabilities for 13 or 16+ reflect contingency buffers in the remaining schedule.",
"context_requires_regen": false,
"context_updated_at": "2026-08-18T16:06:14.532Z"
},
"version": "v1"
}Tickers mapped from the event's catalyst themes.
Tesla Inc.
EV policy, Musk-specific events, and China trade can affect vehicle demand, margins, and investor sentiment.
Rivian Automotive, Inc.
EV policy, Musk-specific events, and China trade can affect vehicle demand, margins, and investor sentiment.
Lucid Group, Inc.
EV policy, Musk-specific events, and China trade can affect vehicle demand, margins, and investor sentiment.
General Motors Company
EV policy, Musk-specific events, and China trade can affect vehicle demand, margins, and investor sentiment.
Ford Motor Company
EV policy, Musk-specific events, and China trade can affect vehicle demand, margins, and investor sentiment.
Albemarle Corporation
EV policy, Musk-specific events, and China trade can affect vehicle demand, margins, and investor sentiment.
Aptiv
EV policy, Musk-specific events, and China trade can affect vehicle demand, margins, and investor sentiment.
ON Semiconductor
EV policy, Musk-specific events, and China trade can affect vehicle demand, margins, and investor sentiment.
QuantumScape Corporation
EV policy, Musk-specific events, and China trade can affect vehicle demand, margins, and investor sentiment.
ChargePoint Holdings, Inc.
EV policy, Musk-specific events, and China trade can affect vehicle demand, margins, and investor sentiment.
NVIDIA Corporation
Semiconductors and hardware supply chains are exposed to Taiwan manufacturing, China demand, and export-control policy.
Advanced Micro Devices Inc.
Semiconductors and hardware supply chains are exposed to Taiwan manufacturing, China demand, and export-control policy.
Broadcom Inc.
Semiconductors and hardware supply chains are exposed to Taiwan manufacturing, China demand, and export-control policy.
QUALCOMM Incorporated
Semiconductors and hardware supply chains are exposed to Taiwan manufacturing, China demand, and export-control policy.