How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?

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  "deployingTimestamp": "2025-12-12T00:30:37.185714Z",
  "requiresTranslation": false,
  "eventMetadata": {
    "context_description": "Starship's limited 2026 cadence stems from ongoing V3 vehicle maturation, with only Flights 12 and 13 completing space-reaching missions by late July amid engine anomalies, scrub cycles, and iterative hardware fixes. Recent successes—payload deployment to orbit on the May 22 Flight 12 and full Starlink V3 release plus intact heat shield recovery on the July 24 Flight 13—have reinforced trader confidence in steady but constrained progress, keeping 5-6 launches as the clear leader at 59.5% implied probability. Persistent technical hurdles, weather and regulatory delays, and the shift toward higher-fidelity orbital attempts continue to cap upside, while plans for monthly testing into Q4 offer the main swing factor for outcomes above or below that range.",
    "context_requires_regen": false,
    "context_updated_at": "2026-08-18T16:47:00.297Z"
  },
  "version": "v1"
}